Holding our breath and watching Joaquin

[Sea Hunt Video]

He found his 37' sailboat about a half mile inland from the marina when he left it. It was in a swimming pool in someone's back yard--totally destroyed.

John:

I am guessing your friend had his sailboat at Black Point Marina, a short distance north of Homestead AFB. In 2008 when I was looking for a place for my Cape Dory Typhoon Weekender I checked out Black Point. Very nice place. The manager had a thick 3-ring binder of photos taken shortly after Hurricane Andrew "visited". The destruction was amazing. I cannot even begin to describe it. Suffice to state it did not look like a marina. It looked like it had been "carpet bombed".

Although I did not have a sailboat in 1992, when I joined the CGSC in 2008 I saw photos of sailboats that had been lifted up by the storm surge and "deposited" miles inland. There is a plaque on the wall of our club building showing the water level at the peak of storm surge. It is eye opening.

Again, good wishes, good luck and be safe to all in or near the path of Hurricane Joaquin.

[Sea Hunt Video]

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... ?map=model

This website suggests the models as of 1700 hours today are "all over the map" so to speak in trying to get a handle on the path Hurricane Joaquin will take over the next few days. This seems atypical, especially to be so divergent only 2 days out. Hopefully, it will resolve soon and we will know where Joaquin is going.

Again, good wishes, good luck and be safe to all in or near the path of Hurricane Joaquin.

[jen1722terry]

Our very best wishes to all Cder's along the coast in this worsening storm.

We're in Nova Scotia and usually get a weakened storm by the time they work their way up here, but we're prepared to double the mooring lines, strip everything we can, etc.

We have dear friends with a home on Eluthra, Bahamas and we feel for them. The home is 100 years old, however and never been knocked off its foundation, so we hope their luck will continue.

Again, good luck to all of you. Stay safe

Jenn and Terry

[John Stone]

I'm no expert. Been watching the news close though. Seems like the jet stream is the big factor right now and it can move around fairly quickly. The big loop down the southeast near the coast seems to be the issue . . . will it pull Joaquin in or push it out. I think that is why they are having trouble with the prediction.

[Sea Hunt Video]

Based on the 2000 hrs modeling it looks like Joaquin is moving more East and almost all of the models now finally agree on this.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... ?map=model

NHC/NOAA is always cautious about moving their cone/path too quickly. They may move it at the 2300 hr projection or wait until sometime Friday am.

Either way, it looks like most (if not all) of the eastern seaboard will be spared a direct it. Everyone from SC north to Maine will get A LOT of rain and beach erosion. The rain will be in addition to what is already on top of a large area of the east coast. Flooding.

[John Stone]

Looking better all the time.

[Jim Walsh]

That's promising news. Hopefully it misses us and Bermuda. The poor souls in the Bahamas are taking a hell of a beating. I continue to be amazed at things like satellite images which aid immensely in predicting and tracking these weather systems. It wasn't that long ago that we'd be lucky to have a two or three days heads-up. The first "Hurricane Hunter" airplane recon flights only took place in 1943, really not that long ago. In 1944 Admiral Halsey lost three destroyers in a typhoon near the Philippines. If he had had satellite images to warn him, perhaps 790 lives and 100 aircraft would have been saved.

[jen1722terry]

Still looking like it will thread the needle between Bermuda and the mainland. Hope the darn thing stays on course (at least better than I stay on course some days).

Dinked out and got our foulies off the boat this afternoon. They may come in handy.

terry

[Jim Walsh]

I went and checked on ORION this afternoon. We have a very rainy northeaster blowing but the winds are pretty reasonable, in the 20's. Northeaster's tend to shift a large volume of water ahead of them and it's readily apparent in my marina. It's about as high as I've seen it, even in a northeaster with substantially stronger winds. My bilge was nearly dry, as it usually is, and I didn't even have any of those irritating little drips around the mast collar.
Thank goodness the hurricane appears to be headed away from us all. That's an event we can all do without.

[jen1722terry]

As of 5 AM this morning (Saturday), it appears our friends' home on Eluthra, Bahamas was spared a direct hit. Nice folks, with no insurance on the home, so we're quite happy for them.

And we wish the Bermuda folks well as the storm continues to veer eastward towards them.

Terry

[godspeed]

cathy- we are beyond watching. we have had winds here in cape may for the last two days blowing northeast steady 20=25 with gusts to 40. the walk out the dock to check on godspeed at high tide was an adventure. the tide has not gone out to normal in a week. the hurricane is not even a concern. welcome to the new jersey coast and nor'easters.

[jen1722terry]

Interesting post about New Jersey.

I spent all the summers of my youth at my folks little cottage on Long Beach Island. The memories are precious and vivid.

We always worried about storms because all the barrier islands in that State were so low and, for the most part, narrow.

I'm old enough to remember the 1962 March storm - not a hurricane - just a nor-easter coupled with a rare high tide that just kept blowing and blowing. This was before the national flood insurance program and before flood zone building codes. Hundreds upon hundreds of home were knocked off their foundations on our island alone.

The aerial photos after the storm blew out looked like a nuclear bomb zone. The island was divided into a few islands with some new inlets. Friends of my Dad, who had worked and saved for decades to build a nice ocean front home, lost it all, including their lot! No insurance, no mercy from Mama Nature.

I had the opportunity to buy my parents home in the late 1990's. After much thought, and reflection, I passed, to my Mom's disappointment. I just didn't want to have so much of my modest wealth tied up in such a fragile environment. I headed for New England, then Canada, where they have lots and lots of rocks along their coasts and few vulnerable barrier islands.

I love the New Jersey coast and dearly miss it. But, as the planet warms, I worry about all the friends and relatives who still cast their financial lot on those alluring, lovely, barrier islands.

Sorry for the dismal post.

Terry

[Jim Walsh]

And we wish the Bermuda folks well as the storm continues to veer eastward towards them.

Terry

Let's all keep Bermuda in our thoughts. Glad I'm not there now.....

[Jim Walsh]

The latest from Bermuda Weather Service.

[Jim Walsh]

The airport in Bermuda just reported sustained 52 knot winds, that's 60mph.