Holding our breath and watching Joaquin

[Paul Clayton]

Down here in Carolina we are watching Joaquin anxiously and hoping he recurves out to sea. Regardless of whether we get a direct strike, looking for very high water, destructive surf and flooding over the weekend. To all sailors from North Carolina to New England, be ready to secure your boats and take cover.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=3131

[Astronomertoo]

Down here in Carolina we are watching Joaquin anxiously and hoping he recurves out to sea. Regardless of whether we get a direct strike, looking for very high water, destructive surf and flooding over the weekend. To all sailors from North Carolina to New England, be ready to secure your boats and take cover.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=3131

We are following the unusual brewing storm. You are correct and we feel for you all. Being on the west coast (the "nature coast" with mostly shallow waters) of Florida, 100 miles north of Tampa it is rare to get more than 40 mph winds out of any of the ones on the east coast. But we looked on in horror when the northeast was slammed by the surge and effects several years ago, which wiped out a lot of Cape Dorys. We will be keeping our fingers crossed for you all. It is time to re-check all your anchor and chaffing gear, and tidy up or remove the rags as needed. We have friends up in the Southport/Cape Fear (storm magnet) area who have been thru more than their share too.
Best wishes.
Bob C

[Sea Hunt Video]

Paul, Bob and all:

Here are a couple of websites that give you a "visual" perspective of storms:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.sh ... e#contents

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... ?map=model

With tropical storms and hurricanes, it is important to remember that NHC/NOAA has, over the years, become very good at predicting a storm's path (where it will go). Unfortunately, NHC/NOAA is still developing sufficiently accurate modeling and data analysis to accurately predict a storm's strength at any given point along the storm's path (it can go from a TS to an H a lot faster than projected).

This website gives a current "visual" of the storm's potential paths depending on a low moving east and a high moving west.

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane ... l-outcomes

[abcnuzeman]

The dilemma of course is wether to pull the boat out for the season, wait to see the track and intensity, or just double up the lines and fenders and hold on. I'm loathe to give up several more weeks of potential sailing and I suffered considerable damage from Sandy even after pulling the boat for the storm, so I guess I'll just dither for awhile.

[oldragbaggers]

Our boat is already on the hard with all canvas and sails removed and mast down. I still don't feel comfortable.

[John Stone]

We are on the Neuse River off Pamlico Sound. Extensive surge issues here. Irene brought an 11' surge to our marina. Our club met today and will again tomorrow. I'll probably put at least one anchor out and double up dock lines. Right now, I plan to remain with the boat to adjust dock lines for high surge. I am not ready for the Far Reach to get schwacked. I'd really like to see this thing pass us by bust it's not looking good right now.

[Sea Hunt Video]

I plan to remain with the boat to adjust dock lines for high surge. I am not ready for the Far Reach to get schwacked. I'd really like to see this thing pass us by bust it's not looking good right now.

John:

Living in South Florida and having lived through more than my share of hurricanes, I would urge you to rethink staying aboard S/V Far Reach. There are many, many stories of sailors remaining aboard during hurricanes. Very, very few of them have a happy ending. There are many stories of persons remaining aboard who were never found. Those found were dead.

Right now, Joaquin is projected to be a Cat 3 hurricane on Friday and Saturday and when it makes landfall, depending on exactly where it makes landfall, it could remain a Cat 3 at landfall sometime Sunday. That would be a major hurricane and very, very destructive.

I know your Cape Dory is important to you and, no doubt, a part of your life. Respectfully, it is not worth losing your life for.

One of the models (I believe it is the "European model") is projecting a possible turn to the East. If so, it may well miss or impact the US coast with less than Cat 3 strength. Fingers crossed.

Please reconsider your plan and do not stay aboard during the storm.

On a lighter note, as everyone may well imagine, I am starting to rethink my idea of exploring the possibility of relocating to Flag Harbor Marina in Maryland.

[Jim Walsh]

We are on the Neuse River off Pamlico Sound. Extensive surge issues here. Irene brought an 11' surge to our marina. Our club met today and will again tomorrow. I'll probably put at least one anchor out and double up dock lines. Right now, I plan to remain with the boat to adjust dock lines for high surge. I am not ready for the Far Reach to get schwacked. I'd really like to see this thing pass us by bust it's not looking good right now.

In 1972 (seems so long ago) my father owned a Grampian 26 (it's best attribute was that it had full standing headroom ) and hurricane Agnes was on its way to New England. I generously offered to babysit the boat to ensure it came to no harm. She was located in Smiths Cove, Niantic, Ct., a true hurricane hole. The worst that could have happened to the boat was that it may have been blown onto a soft mud bank. I drove down to the boat after school and he met me there after work. We doubled up the dock lines and put all our fenders out. He eventually left and said he'd stop back after work the following day unless I'd already returned home to report all was well.
After he left I retrieved my girlfriend, since it's never a good idea to babysit a boat alone. Hurricanes can be fun.

[Astronomertoo]

We are on the Neuse River off Pamlico Sound. Extensive surge issues here. Irene brought an 11' surge to our marina. Our club met today and will again tomorrow. I'll probably put at least one anchor out and double up dock lines. Right now, I plan to remain with the boat to adjust dock lines for high surge. I am not ready for the Far Reach to get schwacked. I'd really like to see this thing pass us by bust it's not looking good right now.

In 1972 (seems so long ago) my father owned a Grampian 26 (it's best attribute was that it had full standing headroom ) and hurricane Agnes was on its way to New England. I generously offered to babysit the boat to ensure it came to no harm. She was located in Smiths Cove, Niantic, Ct., a true hurricane hole. The worst that could have happened to the boat was that it may have been blown onto a soft mud bank. I drove down to the boat after school and he met me there after work. We doubled up the dock lines and put all our fenders out. He eventually left and said he'd stop back after work the following day unless I'd already returned home to report all was well.
After he left I retrieved my girlfriend, since it's never a good idea to babysit a boat alone. Hurricanes can be fun.

Gentlemen,
there are every type of story available, but they all do not end well. I have had 2 friends who stayed with their boats at marinas, in different areas and different storms, and both had minor issues like big boats stacking up on top of each other, such that once it got bad they could not leave. Both were so shook they swore they would never do it again. Life is too short already. I have yet to own a boat more valuable than my life.
Be cautious, and conservative.

[John Stone]

Thanks for the concerns. But we are getting way too far out in front of this. We are 35+ miles from the Atlantic and 15 miles up the Neuse River. We are in a 360 degree well protected small marina. We have high ground behind us and escape routes. Our primary issue is storm surge. We have several members of the club remaining on site to look after boats and each other. Our primary concern is adjusting dock lines as the tide rises, adding chafing gear, etc. I lived in south Fla for 20 years as well and been through many hurricanes. We will monitor Joaquin closely and if the pros call for an epic land fall we will adjust accordingly. Too many people do very little to prepare their boats and simply rely on insurance to compensate for what often could is unnecessary damage. Many times, a little forethought, sound planning, and sensible execution is the most responsible course of action.

Let's hope Joaquin moves off the coast and nl ows itself out, though it's not looking that way right now.

Good luck to all.

[Jim Walsh]

The track prediction models are tending east today. The latest track has it headed east of Cape Cod. It's still whacking the Bahamas currently so we have to ensure we are prepared all along the east coast. It's now category 3.......

[John Stone]

Jim, watching the same. The Nor'easters associated with an eastern track will cause us same kinds of issues but the concerns diminish considerably the first east Jouqin tracks. We are still in the "watch closely" mode here.

[Sea Hunt Video]

On Sunday, 23 August 1992 at 1700 hrs, NHC/NOAA projected that Hurricane Andrew (Cat 5+) would make landfall at the Miami-Dade/Broward County line. Andrew was still miles offshore but moving due East (270 degrees). My house was (and still is ) 50 miles south of the projected landfall point.

In the days preceding Andrew NHC/NOAA had projected Andrew would only be a Cat 1, possibly Cat 2. Of course, then, in my naïve stupidity, I really did not pay attention to storm categories. It was all fun, like "Blizzo Wednesday" in October 1987 when my girlfriend and I drove down to Key West while hurricane force winds were in the Florida Straits (Floyd ). Stupid but great fun. Seaweed all over the streets, winds pushing my truck sideways. Yeah

Foolishly, on Sunday, 23 August 1992, my neighbors and I had a "hurricane keg party" in our Cul-de-Sac. Beer, burgers, music and dancing. Great fun - while it lasted.

Someone turned on the weather channel at about 2100 hours and heard the NHC/NOAA 2000 hours broadcast/projection. Andrew had made a one (1) degree (1 degree ; barely noticeable on tracking charts) turn to the South and the eye of Andrew was now projected to make landfall at or near Homestead AF Base - just a short distance south from my home. NHC/NOAA also reported a significant pressure drop within the system - a sure sign of strengthening

The mood changed quickly. However, there was little to nothing we could do at that point. I remember one of our neighbors applying masking tape to his windows. We now laugh at that naiveté.

My neighbors were LEOs and got paged so they had to gear up to go to work on A/B shifts. We quickly secured the women and children in a neighbors concrete warehouse a couple of miles from our homes. It had heavy metal doors and no windows - essentially at bunker. I volunteered to stay at home to protect whatever property remained - no current wife, no young children; i.e. expendable.

Electric went out at about midnight. Around 0300 hrs, Monday, 24 August 1992, all of the windows, sliding glass doors, etc. in my house blew out with flying glass projectiles going everywhere. That I was not cut to ribbons was (is) a miracle. Within the next hour my roof started blowing away. 160+mph winds from the north wall of Hurricane Andrew battered us for more than five (5) hours. No relief, no eye (we were on the north wall of Andrew - the worst place to be). I say 160+mph because the wind indicator at NHC/NOAA located on the roof of their building at the University of Miami blew off at 160 mph. The winds exceeded 160 mph. The University is 15 miles northeast of my residence.

At about 0800 hours on Monday, 24 August 1992 the winds died down and I came out from my "bunker" - a 2nd bathroom bath tub with a metal exterior door newly installed. My house was mostly gone - 80% of roof blown away. All wood doors and windows gone. Several/most internal walls caved in, etc. I found a huge palm tree in my master bedroom

In the days following Hurricane Andrew we learned that three (3) of our neighbors (only 2 blocks over) had died from a collapsed second floor. There were many, many other deaths.

I lived in a tent in my garage for many days following Andrew, my shotgun and Sig close by my side. My neighbors pit bull somehow survived and found me. We made quite a team. I think potential looters were more scared of the pit bull than of my Remington 870. No food, limited water and millions of mosquitos. It took me more than two (2) years to rebuild my home (the concrete floor slab was not damaged )

I no longer enjoy hurricane parties, etc. Sadly, it has been so long since a major hurricane impacted South Florida that most current residents do not remember (or did not live here during) Hurricane Andrew. Very few take it seriously.

As Jim noted, the current NHC/NOAA tracking for Hurricane Joaquin has it tracking a little more to the East. That is a good thing but dependent on the low pushing the high away from the coast - a tricky forecast. Regardless, hurricane and tropical storm force winds extend far past the "cone of uncertainty". Also, as good as NHC/NOAA is at tracking, they are not infallible. Just a one (1) degree turn can - well you know.

Good luck to all in or near the path of Hurricane Joaquin.

[John Stone]

My best friend was fighter pilot assigned to Homestead AFB during Andrew. They flew their F16s out just in time. When he made it back home it was pretty much destroyed. He found his 37' sailboat about a half mile inland from the marina when he left it. It was in a swimming pool in someone's back yard--totally destroyed.

[Cathy Monaghan]

Paul, Bob and all:

Here are a couple of websites that give you a "visual" perspective of storms:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.sh ... e#contents

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... ?map=model

With tropical storms and hurricanes, it is important to remember that NHC/NOAA has, over the years, become very good at predicting a storm's path (where it will go). Unfortunately, NHC/NOAA is still developing sufficiently accurate modeling and data analysis to accurately predict a storm's strength at any given point along the storm's path (it can go from a TS to an H a lot faster than projected).

This website gives a current "visual" of the storm's potential paths depending on a low moving east and a high moving west.

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane ... l-outcomes

Don't forget NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. Here are the links for the Atlantic and the Pacific:

Atlantic: http://origin.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml
Pacific: http://origin.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Pac_tab.shtml

In addition to the hurricane which could head our way. Here in NJ we are also watching a developing gale off our coast. Wave heights are already 13 feet.

-Cathy
CD32 Realization, #3
Rahway, NJ
Raritan Bay