planning WITH and adapting TO weather

[chase]

I'm planning an early-week sail from Wrightsville, NC to Cape Lookout, NC (about 70nm) and starting to scrutinize the coastal forecast. The two forecasts I've included below have wind predictions that vary significantly within 20-30' of lat/Lon. See Monday.

With afternoon thunderstorms and such, I realize that the coastal forecasts are not absolute, but I'm trying to make sense of this wind forecast relative to my optimal course line. My limited past experience has led me to be conservative in my optimism for an efficient point of sail when planning based on wind forecasts. So my first question then, is what do you make of the discrepancy in these forecasts and/or how do you interpret wind forecasts in trip planning? I'm excluding trade winds or other consistent weather phenomena.

Singlehanding at my experience level I'd prefer to be at anchor before dark. I'm confident I could sail into this particular anchorage after dark were it necessary, but having so few sea miles, I'd rather avoid it.


In terms of adapting to shifting winds, such as wind on the nose, wind dead on the stern, etc what are your strategies? I see a few from my helm:

1) Tack or Jibe back and forth for an eternity and drink lots of coffee and have a good story to tell my Cape Dory buddies online.

2) Fire up the diesel and if combustion continues uninterrupted, arrive in plenty of time for a swim, dinghy setup, sitting fixed in a trance-like state in awe of how cool my boat is.

3) Heaving to. I'll be 10-20 nm offshore. I'd have trouble sleeping. I mean, if I'd done it before I might sleep, but I can't see me sleeping through something as exciting as heaving to for the first time. I can miss one night’s sleep easy; any more would make me stupid and grumpy.

4) Anchor in 50 feet of water with 2-4 ft seas, 10-15 kts at 4:1 scope. Not so sure about this one. I mean, I never really think about anchoring, but in a recent thread about adapting to storm conditions in shallow coastal waters, it appears to be a viable alternative. Perhaps a better tactic for the shallow Pamlico?

At any rate, you'll all hear about it in a couple of weeks.

Chase



SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
320 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006

.SUN...W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING S 10 TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.MON...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING SW 5 TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.TUE...E WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.




S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-
334 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006

.SUN...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS AROUND
2 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.MON...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO
4 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

[Oswego John]

Farmer Chase,

Suggestion! Keep a weather eye on that first tropical storm that might carry up the east coast.

Have a good sail.
Good luck,
O J

[tartansailor]

Only do what you feel you can do with absolute confidence, and build from there, but have a back up plan as you build, like your own option 2.

There is no way in a million years that I would ever hove to within 50 nm of the coast with all the tankers and cargo ships going flat out.

Dick

[Neil Gordon]

>>The two forecasts I've included below have wind predictions that vary significantly within 20-30' of lat/Lon.

Locally, in general, the Massachusetts Turnpike goes west from Boston and divides the state into north of the pike and south of the pike. Somehow, the weather knows to be different on one side or the other.

Wind isn't the same globally. I suppose there's a point where it changes.

>>Tack or Jibe back and forth for an eternity ...<<

70 miles made good while beating to windward is a long day (and night). You could make good time on a broad reach though.

>>Fire up the diesel and if combustion continues uninterrupted, arrive in plenty of time ...<<

That's the common coastal passage making strategy. Sail when it works; motor if there's enough fuel and your VMG would improve significantly.

>>Heaving to.<<

Okay to take a break for lunch. Not a good strategy for sleeping in a traffic zone.

>>Anchor in 50 feet of water with 2-4 ft seas, 10-15 kts at 4:1 scope.<<

That's worse than heaving to.

Keep in mind your "point of no return" option, too. You can do 70 miles in a day by sailing 35 toward your destination and then turning back because it's safer/more prudent.

Are there any other bail out ports?

[chase]

All good points, thanks. Watching tropical storm Alberto now along with other conditions.

There are no bail out ports on that sail, not that I would try in sub-optimal conditions. Others could correct me but I would only try the other inlets (New River, Bogue, New Topsail) in optimal conditions following one of my cousins in their fishing boats or simply not at all.

Might take ICW, the wind will be conducive to sailing. Cape Lookout is out for anchorage with winds forecast to 30kts out of NE and then shifting back to NW. That storm could strengthen, but right now wind shear is pushing the t-storm and wind activity well east of the center and it’s mostly a rain maker. Who knows?

If I can make the Monday window, I can find a more protected anchorage and ride it out and get some inside projects done, like sleeping.

Sailing out of Masonboro inlet tomorrow by 8 feels rushed, especially since I’m still in the mountains 6 hours away and the inlet is 2.5 hours from mooring. We’ll see. Thanks for letting me think out loud, I better get crackin’!

Chase
s/v Anne Freeman
Oriental/Pamlico bound

[Scott MacCready]

Chase, I had planned an off shore excursion for this week also but due to problems posted elsewhere, got a late start and missed my weather window. I was planning on heading across the Pamlico to Ocracoke than contiuing outside back to Beaufort. However now I'd have the wind on my nose the whole trip so I'm relaxing in Oriental instead.


If you decide not to anchor at Cape Lookout and want to avoid the $60/night slip fee on the Beaufort waterfront, come around back on Town Creek to Anchor. Or, if you want a free slip for a night, mine is #12 at the Discovery Dive Shop just across the anchorage from Town Creek Marina. I'm up in Oriental for a few days and don't plan on heading back until Wednesday. If you make it all the way to Oriental, look me up. xx252-342-3021xx

[Keith Newlin]

Chase,

During the first week of May I made the trip from Wrightsville Beach to Cape Lookout. The problem with a 70 mi trip is that it makes for a very long day. Under sail I was averaging 5 kts or so, but that speed would put me at Cape Lookout after dark, so I ended up motorsailing so I would go faster and beat the clock. That sort of makes owning a sailboat pointless, so the next time I will leave at 3 pm or so and sail overnight to arrive at dawn. I've done so before and much prefer this less-pressured approach; then, too, seas tend to be calmer at night.

As for wind: don't try the trip with a North or Northeast wind, for the wind will be on your nose the entire way. Anything else is okay. With the wind on the nose, opt for the waterway; it's a two-day motor.

[George Shaunfield]

Chase,

My viewpoint is a bit different than many sailboat owners. Unless there is a crunch for returning home or some safety dictate, then a sailboat is for sailing! Otherwise it is a powerboat even if it does have a mast and rigging. A recent thread possessed a situation of sailing when weather turned bad and the majority of responders said the first thing they would do is start the engine. How are you and I going to learn seamanship and how to handle our boats if the first hint of changing conditions turns us into boat drivers? Now to the issue at hand.

For me night sailing is somewhat preferred to sailing during the day. Along the lines of Keith's suggestion for a 70 nm sail, start in time to get into open water before dark, sail through the night, and make port in daylight. Plan for the worst and if it turns out better you will find some way to work it in. Based on my experience if the breeze is 10-15 knots you could plan on averaging 67% of your theoretical hull speed. In 5-10 knots it will more likely be 55% or so. On a chart you can layout a possible course with tacking based on possible adverse wind direction and compute the miles. Now allow enough sailing time for THAT distance. If it turns out better, you can enjoy the extra time at your destination.

In a recent offshore trip that would have been 97 nm one way, one crew and I left at 8:00PM Wednesday and arrived at 10:00AM Friday - 123 nm in a 38-hour passage. The average was only 3.2 knots (55% of hull speed), but we sailed rather than motor out of laziness. Returning, we did motor for 17 hours because the wind was 0-5 knots and on the nose. We would otherwise have arrived back too late to get to work Monday morning - one of those "necessary" times to motor. During a 67 nm passage last year we averaged 5 knots (85% of hull speed) in winds of 15-20 knots.

If you don't already do so, keep a log of your trip. It is the prudent thing to do and it will be a valuable reference as you plan subsequent trips.

George