Love us or hate us?

[Neil Gordon]

Hey Neil, you should be here at $2.65.....winthrop

I'll be sure to let all the power boaters around here know. Maybe they'll move down to where you are. That would cut the traffic and wakes way down up here.

[Cathy Monaghan]

...........Hey, they left most of us out until 2009!!!

...and a good thing too, the NJ State Police are swamped with inquiries and folks trying to sign up for the mandatory courses. There are more boaters than there are spaces.


Cathy
CD32 Realization, #3
Rahway, NJ
Raritan Bay

[Neil Gordon]

<center>New Jersey Boating Safety Certificate
now mandatory for boaters</center>

Beware! The rules apply to non-residents as well!!!

[joeeb]

http://www.endofsuburbia.com/

Peak Oil Crisis

Shortages Ahead?

by Tom Whipple
Falls Church News Press
Friday, April 28, 2006
http://www.fcnp.com/608/peakoil.htm

In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

Driving down the New Jersey Turnpike last Sunday, I encountered an unmistakable sign that gasoline problems are close. Every service plaza we passed from New York to Delaware had 100 or more cars waiting in line for gas. Now these lines might have been a simple case of economic theory in action. For some unfathomable reason, the New Jersey Turnpike plazas were selling gasoline for 25 to 30 cents per gallon cheaper than surrounding states. As this comes out to something like $6 per tank full, it is possible that there was no real shortage and a lot of motorists decided that a 100-car line was worth the savings.

The sight of gas lines, which I have not personally encountered for over 25 years, capped a volatile month in which the price of gasoline increased by 50 cents per gallon and shortages related to the MTBE to ethanol conversion developed up and down the US east coast and in scattered other cities required by the EPA to sell cleaner burning gasoline.

Let's try to sort out some of the forces at work and look at implications for the rest of the year. The root cause of the price increases/shortages is, of course, that the world is either at, or approaching, peak oil. The definite answer, however, to the "at" or "approaching" question lies several years away when we can look back at the numbers and say authoritatively "world oil production has peaked." For now, all we can do is watch the evidence accumulate that peak oil either has arrived or is still on the way.

Currently, the most interesting evidence is the lack of significant growth in world oil production for the past year as first reported and then re-reported, after due consideration, by the International Energy Agency and US Government's Energy Information Administration. These monthly reports coupled with a world-wide depletion rate, probably somewhere between 5 and 8 percent a year, means the world oil industry must come up with between 4.2 and 6.7 million barrels a day of new production each year just to stay at the current level of 84.5 million barrels a day.

As yet there are no reports the recent price increases are significantly reducing demand. Although the press is filled with anecdotal stories of people curtailing automobile travel, official reporting by the US Department of Energy says US consumption of petroleum products during the last month is running 1.3 percent ahead of last year. Chinese imports during the last quarter are reported to be 25 percent higher than last year and world economic growth is still slated to be above 4 percent this year.

There is also a worldwide shortage of drilling rigs and technical expertise to produce oil from untapped geologic formations, which now are typically under thousands of feet of water. There also seems to be an increasing reluctance by governments of oil-rich countries and their national oil companies to form revenue sharing partnerships with the major international oil companies that have the equipment, capital, and expertise to develop the difficult geologic formations. This go-it-alone attitude is bound to slow the development of new fields.

It is too early to decide whether the peaking of world oil is a major or minor factor in our current price run-up, but keep the possibility in mind. Sooner or later the peaking of world oil production will be the predominate factor in your escalating gas bills.

Currently many parts of the United States are experiencing gasoline shortages due to problems in converting from the smog reducing additive MTBE to ethanol which performs a similar function. This conversion is causing the oil industry numerous headaches, for the ethanol must be added to the gasoline locally rather than at the refinery. There are also issues of whether there is a large enough supply of ethanol available. In addition to causing shortages, this conversion program is widely believed to be a factor contributing to the recent price run-up, as the ethanol is more expensive than the chemicals it is replacing.

On Tuesday President Bush, obviously feeling political heat from the gas price issue, announced a number of steps to at least give the appearance of doing something to reduce gas prices. First he made the obligatory announcement that the government would root out and punish price gougers and suggested that perhaps the oil companies were making too much money. He then announced that the oil companies that had borrowed crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve would not have to replace it until fall.

For the last four months, refiners have been replacing the borrowed crude at the rate of about 58,000 barrels a day. Considering that the US consumption is more than 20 million barrels a day, it is doubtful that letting refiners hang on to an additional 0.3 percent of daily volume will have a measurable impact.

To deal with the ethanol conversion issue, the President directed the EPA to grant any waivers states request to avoid having to make the conversion immediately. This move is unlikely to have much impact either as the oil industry is already committed to making the conversion so that in most cases, stopping a process already underway will just add to the costs and confusion.

Now we come to the worrisome development for American consumers. In the eight weeks ending April 21, US gasoline inventories dropped by 24.9 million barrels. Gasoline inventories are now 5.5 million barrels below the normal range for this time of the year. These stocks normally grow by 3 million barrels during April in preparation for the summer heavy driving season. Moreover, total US imports of crude and products have also been dropping in the last few weeks.

Now there may be a totally benign technical explanation for the drop— residual effects from the hurricanes, unusually prolonged refinery maintenance, the conversion to ethanol situation, tanker availability. The situation may soon correct itself and the summer driving season may be completely normal except for higher prices. Given the extremely tight worldwide supply and demand situation however, some are beginning to talk about the possibility of major gasoline shortages and much higher prices before the year is out.

The scenario for this unhappy occurrence is simple. Either the world supply/demand situation is so tight that US importers are unable to purchase all the gasoline required to fulfill US needs, or exporters, in anticipation of much higher prices, are holding some of their exportable oil off the market. There are other possibilities such as insufficient sweet crude, particularly from Nigeria , which yields so much gasoline when it is refined.

So far, no industry or government spokesman has emerged with an explanation of just what might be going on with respect to US oil and gasoline imports. This leaves outside observers free to think the worst.

The only thing for certain is that unless US gasoline imports pick up shortly or US refineries start producing a lot more refined products, we are going to see higher gas prices this summer. Oh— and by the way, the surface temperature in the Gulf of Mexico is already higher than it was in April last year.

[tartansailor]

It appears that the authors of that epistle have not heard of the vast coal deposits out west. Three times the BTU's of all the oil ever, last I read.

Anyone hear of Fischer-Tropsh?

OK here it is: Organic Chemistry 101

Fischer-Tropsch Process "Synthetic motor fuel was made in Germany in large amounts by hydrogenation of water gas, which is a mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen formed by treating coke with steam at high temperatures"

Fieser & Fieser - Advanced Organic Chemistry 1961, p.262.

Look at what the Brazilians are now doing with ethanol. They import 0 zero oil.
Look at what the Germans are now doing with hydrogen.

We need to remember that we have the one thing lacking in the rest of the world: Yankee Ingenuity.

Dick

[joeeb]

see www.heatisonline.org

US Sets 214 New Extreme Weather Records in 2005

America's weather was extreme this year

Knight-Ridder Newspapers, Dec. 30, 2005



WASHINGTON - It's not just your imagination. America's weather went wild this year.



It began with a record downpour in the Nevada desert and record warmth in Alaska, and it's ending with floods in California and wildfires in Texas and Oklahoma that have killed four people and consumed 37,795 acres.



Along the way, at least 214 climate records were smashed or tied, thanks to a slew of hurricanes, 21 straight days of 100-degree-plus temperatures in Fresno, Calif., and wildfires that have burned 8.64 million acres, nearly a quarter-million more than the previous record, set in 2000.



Extremes were everywhere. Above-normal heat covered twice as much land as usual. Excessive rain and/or snow blanketed three times as much land as normal. Average daily low temperatures were warmer than normal across four times as much U.S. territory as in average years.



It was the third worst year for U.S. extreme-weather events in history, according to the National Climatic Data Center. For 2005's first 11 months, the nation had an extreme-climate index figure of 35, behind only 1998's 42 and 1934's 37. The average annual score is 20.

One form of extreme weather fell short, however: tornadoes. In 2005, there were only half as many killer U.S. tornadoes as recent norms.



The relentless Atlantic hurricane season especially marked 2005 as wild - and tragic. Hurricanes set or tied 19 records, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, including:



_Hurricane Katrina caused $50 billion in insured damages.

_Hurricane Wilma set a hemispheric record for low barometric pressure.

_Three Category 5 hurricanes formed: Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

_A record seven major storms packed winds above 110 mph; the old record was five.

_Fourteen hurricanes in the season beat the old record of 12.

_The 26 named storms shattered the old mark of 21, set in 1933, causing meteorologists to run out of conventional names for hurricanes and tropical storms. They had to go five deep into the Greek alphabet for new names.



Many of the remaining extremes came from Alaska, which had 53 percent of the wildfire acreage burned and set temperature, rain and snow records almost weekly. That's because Alaska is getting hotter from global warming and its permafrost is melting, said Jay Lawrimore, the chief of the National Climatic Data Center's climate-monitoring branch.



It's less clear whether what's happening nationally can be blamed on global warming or results from mere chance. Scientists are researching the question on supercomputers. One theory is that warmer air holds more moisture, creating bigger downpours, snowfalls and stronger hurricanes, and that warmer air also worsens droughts.

Lawrimore said that one year's extremes couldn't necessarily be blamed on climate change and were more likely to reflect random weather shifts. But Kevin Trenberth, the climate-analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said initial studies showed that global warming might be a factor.



In his latest research, Trenberth calculated that because the ocean is warmer, there's been an 8 percent increase in moisture flowing into tropical storms and hurricanes, and in rain coming out of them. For Katrina, that meant an extra inch of rain fell on the Gulf Coast.

"We're in the realm now where global warming is with us and we're going to see this year to year," Trenberth said.



Unusual weather records from 2005, and ones of local interest to some Knight Ridder newspapers.



January:

Jan. 3: Las Vegas sets a city record of 0.81 inches for the most rainfall on one January day.

Jan. 8: Valdez, Alaska's 54 degrees beats the city's previously warmest January day by 8 degrees.

Jan. 9: Pocatello, Idaho, had its snowiest January day, 8.3 inches.

January total: Boston's Logan airport reported 43.1 inches of snow, its snowiest month ever.



February:

Spokane, Wash.'s total 0.04 inches of rain was its driest February on record.

Miles City, Mont. - with no rain - had its driest February ever.



March:

March 11: San Jose, Calif.'s 87 degrees was its hottest March day ever.

March 18: Rochester, Minn., had its snowiest day ever with 19.8 inches, beating 15.4 inches in 1982.

Dec. `04-March `05: Cleveland's Hopkins airport had its snowiest season ever - 105.3 inches.



April:

April 29: Anchorage, Alaska's warmest April day ever, 72 degrees.

April 29-30: Jackson, Ky., had its wettest 24 hours, with 3.13 inches of rain.

April total: Pensacola, Fla., had its wettest month ever, with 24.46 inches of rain.



May:

May 3: Aberdeen, S.D.'s coldest May day ever, a low of 13 degrees.

May 3: Fort Wayne, Ind., tied its 1966 coldest May day ever with a low of 27 degrees.

May total: Burley, Idaho, had the wettest May with 5.06 inches of rain, beating 1998's 4.35 inches.



June:

Naples, Fla., had its wettest June with 21.28 inches of rain.

Boundary Dam, Wash., had its wettest June with 5.47 inches, beating 1981's 4.67 inches.



July:

July 18: Big Bear Lake, Calif., tied its 1972 hottest day ever with 94 degrees.

July 19: Las Vegas tied its 1942 hottest day ever with 117 degrees. It also had the highest low temperature for the day, 95 degrees.

July total: Miami had its highest average monthly temperature, 85.1 degrees, breaking 1983's 85.0 degrees.



August:

July 23-Aug. 12: Fresno, Calif., had a record 21 consecutive days of 100-degree-plus weather.

Aug. 11-12: Hoonah, Alaska, had its hottest day ever each day, at 86 degrees.

Aug. 18: Highest recorded sea temperature for a New Jersey-Delaware buoy, at 84.7 degrees.

August total: Wichita, Kan., had its wettest August, with 11.96 inches of rain.

August total: Orlando, Fla., had its hottest August, averaging 85.1 degrees.

August total: West Palm Beach, Fla., tied its hottest August ever with an average temperature of 84.9 degrees.



September:

Sept. 23: Topeka, Kan., had its wettest day ever with 5.61 inches of rain, beating 1919's 5.23 inches.

Sept. 25: San Angelo, Texas, tied a September 1952 heat record of 107 degrees.

September total: Columbia, S.C., had its driest September ever, with just a trace of rain, less than 1985's 0.07 inches.



October:

Oct. 5: Jackson, Ky., had its warmest October day, 87 degrees.

Oct. 7: Columbia, S.C., tied its 1941 warmest low temperature of 74 degrees.

October total: Minneapolis-St. Paul airport had record October rainfall, 4.61 inches.



November:

Nov. 7: Joplin, Mo., tied its November 1980 high temperature, 83 degrees.

Nov. 26-28: Great Falls, Mont., had its heaviest snowstorm on record with 18.1 inches.



December:

Dec. 4: Little Rock, Ark., tied a December 1956 high of 80 degrees.

Yearly: The U.S. wildfire total is 8.64 million acres, beating 2000's 8.4 million acres.



SOURCES: National Climatic Data Center, National Interagency Fire Center.

[Oswego John]

Tartan Sailor,

I am in full agreement with what you say. Actually I'd like to add some input into the so called manufactured "energy crisis". Back in the seventies and early eighties I used to mess around with this a bit for a living.

I got to thinking about this while reading the thread about sailors and powerboaters at the fuel dock. In a remote way, it is a concern for the boating industry.

The petroleum industry, as we are allowed to understand it, is a well oiled (pun?) conglomerate that has one, and only one objective in mind. And that is to make money for themselves and their stockholders.

Not only is there vast amounts of low sulfur coal deposits within the lower fortyeight states, in 1943. tremendous deposits of quality coal were discovered at the Usibelli Reserve at Healy, Alaska, which is just southwest of Fairbanks. No one knows for sure just how much coal is under the Alaska Range.

I don't know if you remember or not that at one time, back in the seventies there was a lukewarm concerted effort to produce oil shale and shale oil as a viable answer for the "oil shortage". A conservative estimate is that the world supply of oil shale is somewhere around 1.6 TRILLION barrels. Of that amount, between 1 and 1.2 Trillion barrels are in the United States.

Shale oil producers could supply oil for somewhere between $35.00 and $40.00. Almost overnight, OPEC production increased and the cost of imported oil dropped measurably, gasoline became plentiful once again for a much lower cost per gallon. T'was a miracle. And so, the demise of shale oil.

Now, the cost per barrel of imported oil is over $70.00 and climbing. Shale oil can be produced for half that amount but the slick spin of the oil industry will tell you how unecological it is to produce it. Already the word is out how unproductive it is to produce ethanol.

If anyone is interested, type in keyword Usibelli Coal Mine

and also

http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shale_oil

That little iron jenny sure seems sweeter, more and more each day.

Have a good one,
O J

[tartansailor]

Thanks O.J.
Yes I remember it well.
Our only hope is to lean on our elected representatives.

Dick

[bill2]

I too have a few recollections of the 70's oil crisis. One memory was that there are many lower 48 wells that were played out economically at 20/30 barrel because the remaining oil required higher tech techniques ( think steam injection, etc etc ) that would have brought the price up to 40/50 barrel. So now the oil companies want virtual giveaways in the Artic Wildlife Refuge so they can make more money - hah - clear out what you've got before we start giving taxpayer land away for trinkets ( and when you have profits in the tens of billions its all trinkets ).

I also saw the governor of Wyoming ( or was it South Dakota ? ) show that his state could produce clean low sulfur diesel from coal if needed.

FWIW Brazil is operating without foreign oil because they run on 100 million gallons ( barrels ? ) of ethanol from farm crops - from Dateline's story on TV tonight.

and there's the MIT professor who'd eliminate foreign diesel fuel because he's developed a process to grow algae ( highest yield yet for "bio" oil that I've heard of - way more than soy,corn,etc,etc ) not in ponds but in chambers using the CO2 from power plants and refineries to feed them. Says that if we'd just use the technology on existing power plants we'd have enough for all our domestic diesel needs.

IMHO we need to turn ethanol and biodiesel loose - especially not under the control of the oil industry so we get a little legitimate competition out there.

OK enough is enough - thanks for loaning me the soap box . . .

[Steve Laume]

I have meet a number of converted sailors down at the boat recently. People how have had power boats for a number of years and are now starting to sail. There is also a big fat power boat in the slip next to me that will most likely never leave. It is a big ugly thing with no designed purpose but to go fast and to drink in the cockpit. I watched the owner, who is a nice guy, entertain a friend all day and never leave the dock. His wife comes down with the plastic deck chairs cleans em up a bit and plops them in the cockpit. They have the new gas grill and a really big cooler so who needs to go anywhere? I think those medium sized boats are going to get used a lot less. For the big guys the money for fuel just doesn't matter and the little boats are like sailors in that they don't use that much anyway. So there may be more boats that never leave the docks or rarely leave. The less often they go out the harder it is to get ready to go so soon it just isn't worth all the trouble. The other thing that I see as good and bad is that instead of blasting out to Block Island and burning all that fuel the closer beach spots will become more crowded. The thing that really worries me is that the price of beer is not going up along with the price of fuel. That means it is a lot cheaper to drink more and run less. In fact a guy might be reasonable enough to figure out it is cheaper to just sit on his boat and drink a whole lot of that really cheap beer instead of burning up that really expensive fuel. That is good reasoning until he becomes unreasonably dunk and then decides "aw to hell with it lets go for a little boat ride". Yes my friends the disparity between beer and fuel prices is the real crisis, Steve.

[joeeb]

Couldn't agree with both of you more. All this Voodoo science funded by the oil and gas companies to stick it to the consumer seems the most likely scenario. Thanks for the insightful post.


Pollution soaring to crisis levels in Arctic

Scientists plead for action to save poles from 'tipping point' disaster

Robin McKie, science editor
Sunday March 12, 2006
The Observer

Researchers have uncovered compelling evidence that indicates Earth's most vulnerable regions - the North and South Poles - are poised on the brink of a climatic disaster.

The scientists, at an atmospheric monitoring station in the Norwegian territory of Svalbard, have found that levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere near the North Pole are now rising at an unprecedented pace.

In 1990 this key cause of global warming was rising at a rate of 1 part per million (ppm). Recently, that rate reached 2 ppm per year. Now, scientists at the Mount Zeppelin monitoring station have discovered it is rising at between 2.5 and 3 ppm.

'The fact that our data now show acceleration in the rise of carbon dioxide level is really a source for concern,' said Professor Johan Strom, of Stockholm University's department of applied environmental science, which runs the Mount Zeppelin station. 'The increase is also seen at other stations, but our Zeppelin data show the strongest increase.'

The news of the latest carbon dioxide figures comes as scientists prepare to announce details of the forthcoming International Polar Year programme, which will involve teams of scientists from around the world making a concerted attempt to understand the impact of global warming in the world's high latitudes. In particular, they will concentrate on the social impact of climate change there and also the threats to the regions' wildlife, such as polar bears and walruses.

In the last two decades, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have risen from 350 to 380 ppm and scientists warn that once levels reach 500, there could be irreversible consequences that would tip the planet toward disaster: glacier melts triggering devastating sea-level rises and spreading deserts across Africa and Asia.

Scientists and campaigners are desperate for politicians to reach agreements that will prevent the 500 ppm 'tipping point' being breached in the next half-century. These new data suggest they may have a far shorter period of time in which to act.

'Fortunately, this rate of rise of carbon dioxide is not yet seen round the world,' added Strom. 'However, it may be that we have been the first to detect it, and that we are seeing some kind of special effect that could have widespread consequences in a few years.'

One theory proposed by Strom is that heating of the oceans could be leading to the release of carbon dioxide. Other scientists suggest that as the world warms, the Arctic tundra - previously gripped by permafrost - may be giving off carbon dioxide as it melts, releasing gas from vegetation trapped within it that has now started to rot. Thus levels of the gas would increase with particular rapidity near the North Pole.

The latest data from Mount Zeppelin comes in the wake of a series of other alarming reports about the effects of global warming in the Arctic and Antarctic. It was recently discovered that ice sheets are now covering less of the Arctic Ocean than ever before; that Greenland is shedding sheets of ice far faster than previously realised; that the West Antarctic ice cap is dwindling at an unexpectedly high rate; and that the Gulf Stream is showing worrying signs of being disrupted by Arctic meltwaters.

The last effect is particularly worrying, because the waters of the Gulf Stream play a key role in keeping Britain and Europe from freezing in winter. Should it disappear, the consequences for the country would be profound.

'The crucial point is that you can't look at the Arctic and Antarctic in isolation,' said Professor Chris Rapley, head of the British Antarctic Survey. 'What happens there has profound consequences for the rest of the planet.'

It was thought until recently that it would take up to 1,000 years for heat to penetrate the Greenland ice shield and melt it. But the latest data show that large parts of it are actually sliding in lumps into the sea. 'That means it is likely to take far less time to raise sea levels,' added Rapley. 'And if Greenland's ice melts, we will be in trouble. There will be a seven-metre rise in the oceans. The Thames Barrier would be swamped.'

[Joe Myerson]

I've got to second Steve's comment about large boats that never leave the dock--many of which appear to have been designed only for entertainment. (I could name some brands, but some of my company's biggest advertisers sell the junk buckets.) I hadn't thought about his observation on the stable price of beer--that's truly frightening.

A former waterfront manager at Marina Bay, the large marina just south of Boston where my office is moored--and where Neil's famous "Liquidity" has her slip--once told me that he noticed this trend increasing every year: Some people would move up to bigger boats that they found intimidating, others used their boats in place of waterfront summer homes and still others used their boats to entertain clients. At that time there was little concern about fuel cost.

My guess is that there will be more and more of these boats--until their owners decide to bail out. In the short term this doesn't bode well for the companies that manufacture, sell and maintain such so-called boats. But the big companies like Genmar and Brunswick are probably smart and nimble enough to find another model--eventually. Right now, they've discovered that they can boost their bottom lines by building bigger and bigger boats (this applies to sailboats, too. Who really needs a 42-foot daysailer?).

Will more boaters turn to sailing? That's anybody's guess. And what about smaller boats (which seems more and more to mean boats under 45 feet)? Will they become the boats of the future?

If so, I'd say there's some good coming from the increasing price of petroleum.

Sorry for another rant--you can see the permanent damage my brain suffered from those years I wasted as a so-called business journalist.

--Joe

[Bob Condon]

In ethinol production if the Exxon/Mobil clowns can stay out of it...

I doubt it.. Why is the government protecting GM /Ford with their tax breaks on big SUVs?

I would rather see more money put in the ethinol arena but then the elected officials will have reduced money for their campaigns...

It is all sooooooooooooooo dirty

[Neil Gordon]

And what about smaller boats (which seems more and more to mean boats under 45 feet)? Will they become the boats of the future?

If the housing market is any indication, the answer is no. Boats will continue to get bigger even if the market for them begins to shrink.

[Leonard Lookner]

Not long a go I talked to an acquaintance that builds power boats, mostly of the lobster yacht variety. I asked him if people were requesting more fuel efficient hulls or engines. He said what he has noticed is that he is getting more requests for the new 1000 H.P. caterpillar that has replaced the 800 H.P. and that worrying about the price of fuel was equivalent to complaining about the price of golf balls after paying 100,000.00 dollars to join the country club. Only in America, what a wonderful country.