Avian flu: escape route by sea

[Neil Gordon]

I... in case of future catastrophies, am ready on a moments notice to leave my dock for an extended period of time.

Could you share your plan? Say you had to leave right now...

What's the plan for water, food, fuel, medical emergencies, weather, etc. How long would you expect to be at sea? Who pays your bills, etc., while you're gone? Is it just you or is there family you're taking with you?

[Warren Kaplan]

Mike,
If you felt that any of my remarks were in the form of sarcasm or for the purpose of poking fun at you I humbly apologize. E-mails and bulletin board postings have the distinct drawback of often leaving an impression with the reader that is alien to what the author intended.

No doubt the great flu epidemic of, what was it you said, 1916, was horrendous. Does the current avian flu problem have the potential to mirror the events of 1916? Certainly.

Let me clarify my remarks.

First, any flu virus any year has the potential to mutate into something that would have a catastrophic effect on human populations. Avian flu, the myriad of Human Influenza subtypes, swine flu....and even the brand new Canine Flu, that mutated from Equine Flu on a dog track full of greyhounds in Florida, could potentially bring misery to us all. Already there are rumblings about an epidemic in people. So, I'm just saying this can happen any year, any time with numerous viruses.

Second, the avian flu problem did not arise last week. Its been around for months and months now and has spread from Asia, to North America, and last week they reported a case in heavy poultry producing France. Still, in all that time, relatively few people have actually contracted the disease and, no doubt, it is already in wild bird populations facilitating its global spread.

What are we to make of this? Evidently, the avian flu virus does not have great affinity for human beings. Could that change?? Certainly. But as of now, its pretty much staying in birds or infecting people like poultry workers who have heavy direct contact. And when a person does contract it, it doesn't seem to show exponential person to person spread. So far, if I read the reports correctly, there are reports of infected people spreading the disease to perhaps one other person and not entire families, streets or neighborhoods. Can that change? Certainly.

As I alluded to earlier, the devastation to human populations each year from human influenza virus, whatever strain is in vogue that year, is far greater than what we saw with the dreaded SARS and what we've seen so far after months and months of avian flu.

Perhaps there will be an epidemic. Perhaps an epidemic, if it arises, will balloon into a pandemic. Nobody knows for sure. Take whatever precautions you feel are prudent for you and your family. I certainly am not the one to instruct you on that.

I only know what the evidence shows at present after quite a few months of this disease. Should the evidence change, I will change appropriately to my needs.

[Carter Brey]

Hi, Mike,

No offense taken. I apologize if it seems as though we're not taking your point seriously. Some of us, probably most of all myself, have trouble eradicating that bad little boy deep within that seems to rear his head at inopportune moments. It's probably an instinctive reaction to awkward questions. Just ask our wives. Certainly they'll get up and snort if you ask them how great we are as sailors, Cape Dory or otherwise.

I will admit that I have given passing thought to use of the sailboat as an escape route of last resort in the event of a catastrophe, living as you and I do in the richest and most symbolically pregnant terrorist target in the world. I will confess to having imagined cars lined up for countless panicky miles on I-95 as I sailed slowly and steadily for the Race at the end of Long Island Sound, a column of smoke rising from the city beyond my transom. However, this scenario presupposes a concern for the niceties of launch season on the part of the attacking agent (terrorist, virus, or whatever). What happens if the catastrophe occurs between, say, December and April? Those of us who cannot afford year-round dockage are out of luck. Even if such a thing were to occur during the sailing season, I can imagine a few challenges to be overcome simply in getting to the boat, several miles and two heavily populated borroughs away.

That said, I'll turn from my specifics to the general idea and echo Neil's question .Precisely how have you prepared for an extended period of flight in your CD25, especially if you have children in the picture?

Best regards,
Carter

[Len]

In the early nineteen hundreds the top killers (in the US) were flu (influenza- before bird flu even), diahrea,tb, etc. Heart desease and cancer were far down on the list. The deseases that were prominant were those that were later eradicated (almost) by advances in public health (sanitation, vacinatiion, etc.) Todays top killers - Cancer, and heart disease are generally associated with old age (not exclusively) But bird flu or any pandemic that you could get by merely touching something is indeed scarey. Our public health system was built on this fear. I am perplexed why this fear has prevented public health from establishing effective anti aids clinics in india and other third world places. How likely is it that the bird flu will attack million? I do no t know. But I do know that we need the fear to keep the public institutions working on our behalf to prevent a possibly horrible pandemic.

[tartansailor]

I consider All of the board members here, friends, whom I have not yet had the pleasure of meeting; and with that said, I will try and extinguish the impending flame.

Say a pandemic strikes, and you do in fact load your family and provisions aboard and make your get-away. Where do you go?

South is out because the Atlantic seaboard is a mass of humanity and will most likely be locked down in quarantine. My County (Sussex) in Delaware already has quarantine plans in place.

You go North, and by some miracle reach Canada. As you approach a safe harbor, a shot will cross your bow, and any illusions of pratique will be rapidly dispelled. The Canadian Officer in Charge will give you 2 options: Anchor in a quarantine zone or weigh anchor and leave. You anchor, and a friendly Canuk offers to provision your boat. $1,000.00 a trip!

This is reality; listen and take the good doctor's advise about washing, and try and get on good terms with your Creator.

Lets end this here.

Dick

[Joe CD MS 300]

You raised some questions and got a variety of responses. Not everyone is going to have the same outlook as you do. You don't get to pick the type of answers you get to your questions. I my self have given the possibility of a bird flu outbreak passing thought and may ask my family doctor the next time I'm in for a physical to get his thoughts. However, heading off in my boat is not really an option. I have a wife, grown children, a mother, a sister with family and a variety of other family members and friends that would be hard to leave behind.

Instead I am in the process of restocking the circa 1963 bomb shelter the PO of my home had built.

Even in the face of serious problems it doesn't hurt to keep your sense of humor.

Joe

[mahalocd36]

Even in the face of serious problems it doesn't hurt to keep your sense of humor.

Joe

I think this is very good advice. I think a lot of people try to diffuse a serious situation with humor. How many of you have been a funerals where something funny happens or some 'inappropriate' joke gets made and you have to laugh? (No? Just my family? ) Anyways, without humor I'd find the prospect of dying rather grim.

[Len]

let's not fret 'bout lime disease, bird flu, ebola,nile,or even asian.Drink your lemon juice if you got any. springs a fortnight away and i'ma itchin' to star a varnishin', laying a course and leavin the hard behind.

[bobdugan]

Folks,

I've deleted several posts in this thread.

We're here to talk about boating-related issues and Cape Dories.

Let's stay on topic.

Thanks!

Bob

[bill2]

Another 0.02

FWIW - Long ago I seem to recall people telling me that the Mormons prepare food, clothing, supplies and such for as long as one or two years. Not sure that I remember accurately but I think it had to do with being ready for a long term natural disaster ( maybe in their trek west ? ). I don't even know if they did it then let alone still practice it - part of their faith. Maybe others will know more . . .

[rtbates]

I'll be staying and doing as the Japanese do during flu season
wear a surgical mask.

[Neil Gordon]

It was only when the information changed through the early circumnavigators of the world, and kept being repeated, that the new information could displace the old and in time create a new belief of the nature of the earth.

So you're saying we can safely sail a bit futher off shore without falling off the edge?

[Domenic]

Niel, THANKS. You are the best. I learn SOOOOO much from you. THANKS THANKS

[Joe Montana]

It took awhile for me to find what this thread reminded me of:

Have you built your ship of death, O have you?
O build your ship of death, for you will need it.
...
A little ship, with oars and food
and little dishes, and all accoutrements
fitting and ready for the departing soul.

Now launch the small ship, now as the body dies
and life departs, launch out, the fragile soul
in the fragile ship of courage, the ark of faith
with it's store of food and little cooking pans
and change of clothes,
upon the flood's black waste
upon the waters of the end
upon the sea of death, where still we sail
darkly, for we cannot steer, and have no port.
...
Ah wait, wait, for there's the dawn,
the cruel dawn of coming back to life
out of oblivion.
...
Wait, wait! even so, a flush of yellow
and strangely, O chilled wan soul, a flush of rose.

A flush of rose, and the whole thing starts again.
...
Oh build your ship of death, oh build it!
for you will need it.
For the voyage of oblivion awaits you.

From The Ship of Death by D.H. Lawrence

[bobdugan]

In keeping with the intended use of this board, and in the interest of keeping the peace, this thread has been locked.

Please try to stay on topic....that would be discussions regarding Cape Dorys, problems, resolutions, projects, their use, and boating in general, etc.

Inappropriate messages will be deleted. Off topic messages may be ignored, deleted or locked -- depends on what kind of complaints I get. You can still read a locked topic, so feel free to do so.

Thanks,

Bob
(Assistant to the Assistant Webmaster)