Bad Feeling
Moderator: Jim Walsh
Re: Bad Feeling
Looks like here in Nawlins by Tuesday we could have one to the east and one to the west in the Gulf.
Capt Hook
s/v Kumbaya
Cape Dory 31, Hull No. 73
New Orleans, LA
s/v Kumbaya
Cape Dory 31, Hull No. 73
New Orleans, LA
Re: Bad Feeling
This morning it looks like I'm right about where the western edge of the cone for TS Laura touches the eastern edge of the cone for TD 14.
Does that mean they'll cancel each other out? Or is that wishful thinking?
Does that mean they'll cancel each other out? Or is that wishful thinking?
Capt Hook
s/v Kumbaya
Cape Dory 31, Hull No. 73
New Orleans, LA
s/v Kumbaya
Cape Dory 31, Hull No. 73
New Orleans, LA
- Sea Hunt Video
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Re: Bad Feeling
Captain Hook:Capt Hook wrote:This morning it looks like I'm right about where the western edge of the cone for TS Laura touches the eastern edge of the cone for TD 14.
Does that mean they'll cancel each other out? Or is that wishful thinking?
Are you familiar with the boxing term "a left jab followed by a right hook" (no pun intended
![Wink :wink:](./images/smilies/icon_wink.gif)
The "good news" is that on its current track you will get the "good side" of TS Laura - soon to be "H Laura". Is there really such a thing as a "good side" to any hurricane
![Question :?:](./images/smilies/icon_question.gif)
![Question :?:](./images/smilies/icon_question.gif)
The "bad news" is that on its current track you will get the "bad side" or "dirty side" of TD 14, soon to be TS Marco and then H Marco.
An interesting factoid. "My bible" (the Weather Channel, loved by all, especially John S.
![Wink :wink:](./images/smilies/icon_wink.gif)
![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif)
Fair winds,
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Re: Bad Feeling
I'm just shickled titless...Sea Hunt Video wrote:What an honor it must be for you and Mike and others along the Gulf to members of such a unique "club".
![Rolling Eyes :roll:](./images/smilies/icon_rolleyes.gif)
-michael & Toni CDSOA #789
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
- Sea Hunt Video
- Posts: 2561
- Joined: May 4th, '11, 19:03
- Location: Former caretaker S/V Bali Ha'i 1982 CD 25D; Hull 69 and S/V Tadpole Typhoon Week
Re: Bad Feeling
When I felt the hairs on the back of my neck itch I had no idea it was going to be two (2) hurricanes in the Gulf at the same time. Yikes
![Crying or Very sad :cry:](./images/smilies/icon_cry.gif)
On its current course and speed, it looks like Laura will come very close to us in Miami as either a very strong TS or minimal Cat. 1 Hurricane. Once past the Florida Straits both systems have time to soak up the very warm (hot
) Gulf waters and get stronger. Remember, NHC/NOAA are good at projecting a storm's course; they are not yet good at projecting storm strength at any given point along its path. Either storm could easily become a hurricane sooner than projected and/or strengthen substantially once in the warm Gulf waters. Scary
Mike, Captain Hook and all others in the path of, or near to, either (or both
) of these systems, you will be in my thoughts. Be safe.
![Exclamation :!:](./images/smilies/icon_exclaim.gif)
![Exclamation :!:](./images/smilies/icon_exclaim.gif)
![Exclamation :!:](./images/smilies/icon_exclaim.gif)
![Crying or Very sad :cry:](./images/smilies/icon_cry.gif)
![Crying or Very sad :cry:](./images/smilies/icon_cry.gif)
![Crying or Very sad :cry:](./images/smilies/icon_cry.gif)
On its current course and speed, it looks like Laura will come very close to us in Miami as either a very strong TS or minimal Cat. 1 Hurricane. Once past the Florida Straits both systems have time to soak up the very warm (hot
![Exclamation :!:](./images/smilies/icon_exclaim.gif)
![Exclamation :!:](./images/smilies/icon_exclaim.gif)
Mike, Captain Hook and all others in the path of, or near to, either (or both
![Exclamation :!:](./images/smilies/icon_exclaim.gif)
![Exclamation :!:](./images/smilies/icon_exclaim.gif)
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Fair winds,
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Re: Bad Feeling
That’s a scary weather map Roberto. Wow. Be careful everyone.
Jim Walsh
Ex Vice Commodore
Ex Captain-Northeast Fleet
CD31 ORION
The currency of life is not money, it's time
Ex Vice Commodore
Ex Captain-Northeast Fleet
CD31 ORION
The currency of life is not money, it's time
Re: Bad Feeling
Yes, it is a bit scary... a friend of mine is a retired meteorologist and opined there's a possibility the two storms could actually swap paths if the encounter each other close enough. They could also combine into one, but not necessarily a stronger storm.Jim Walsh wrote:That’s a scary weather map Roberto. Wow. Be careful everyone.
We'll just have to prep for the worst and wait & see...
Since I don't drink dark/heavy beer, I'm very happy to have *plenty* of red wine at home.
![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif)
-michael & Toni CDSOA #789
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
-
- Posts: 3582
- Joined: Oct 6th, '08, 07:30
- Location: S/V Far Reach: CD 36 #61 www.farreachvoayges.net www.farreachvoyages.com
Re: Bad Feeling
mgphl52 wrote:Yes, it is a bit scary... a friend of mine is a retired meteorologist and opined there's a possibility the two storms could actually swap paths if the encounter each other close enough. They could also combine into one, but not necessarily a stronger storm.Jim Walsh wrote:That’s a scary weather map Roberto. Wow. Be careful everyone.
We'll just have to prep for the worst and wait & see...
Good grief. That is scary. Good luck to all y’all down south FL and along the Gulf Coast.
- barfwinkle
- Posts: 2169
- Joined: Feb 6th, '05, 10:34
- Location: S/V Rhapsody CD25D
Re: Bad Feeling
Here's hoping they have that tracking model/forecast working well...
Sucks for Louisiana but this makes me feel a bit safer![Exclamation :!:](./images/smilies/icon_exclaim.gif)
And hopefully eases some tension for Roberto
Sucks for Louisiana but this makes me feel a bit safer
![Exclamation :!:](./images/smilies/icon_exclaim.gif)
And hopefully eases some tension for Roberto
![Exclamation :!:](./images/smilies/icon_exclaim.gif)
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-michael & Toni CDSOA #789
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
- Sea Hunt Video
- Posts: 2561
- Joined: May 4th, '11, 19:03
- Location: Former caretaker S/V Bali Ha'i 1982 CD 25D; Hull 69 and S/V Tadpole Typhoon Week
Re: Bad Feeling
This is pretty incredible
![Exclamation :!:](./images/smilies/icon_exclaim.gif)
Captain Hook, this may be one of those times where discretion is the better part of valor. A tactical retreat to a more Northern location may be appropriate.
Whether you stay or evacuate, you (and all of us) will learn about the Fujiwhara Effect from two hurricanes interacting in the Gulf of Mexico and both expected to make landfall near New Orleans within roughly 48 hours of each other as Cat. 1 systems. Yikes
![Exclamation :!:](./images/smilies/icon_exclaim.gif)
My thoughts are with you Captain Hook and Mike and all along the Gulf coast.
![Exclamation :!:](./images/smilies/icon_exclaim.gif)
![Exclamation :!:](./images/smilies/icon_exclaim.gif)
![Exclamation :!:](./images/smilies/icon_exclaim.gif)
Captain Hook, this may be one of those times where discretion is the better part of valor. A tactical retreat to a more Northern location may be appropriate.
Whether you stay or evacuate, you (and all of us) will learn about the Fujiwhara Effect from two hurricanes interacting in the Gulf of Mexico and both expected to make landfall near New Orleans within roughly 48 hours of each other as Cat. 1 systems. Yikes
![Exclamation :!:](./images/smilies/icon_exclaim.gif)
![Exclamation :!:](./images/smilies/icon_exclaim.gif)
![Exclamation :!:](./images/smilies/icon_exclaim.gif)
My thoughts are with you Captain Hook and Mike and all along the Gulf coast.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Fair winds,
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Re: Bad Feeling
How close do they have to be for the "Fujiwhara Effect" ??? Current plots look like they'll be at least 600+ miles apart before Marco makes land fall.
-michael & Toni CDSOA #789
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
- Sea Hunt Video
- Posts: 2561
- Joined: May 4th, '11, 19:03
- Location: Former caretaker S/V Bali Ha'i 1982 CD 25D; Hull 69 and S/V Tadpole Typhoon Week
Re: Bad Feeling
Mike:
I am NOT a meteorologist but there is a 1995 article in the Journal of Atmospheric Sciences that suggests the Fugiwhara effect can be observed when two (2) systems are within about 400 miles of each other.
Whether Laura and Marco "merge" or not it sure looks like our friend Captain Hook and all along the La. and Miss. coastline are going to have a very rough week starting Monday, 24 August.
![Sad :(](./images/smilies/icon_sad.gif)
I am NOT a meteorologist but there is a 1995 article in the Journal of Atmospheric Sciences that suggests the Fugiwhara effect can be observed when two (2) systems are within about 400 miles of each other.
Whether Laura and Marco "merge" or not it sure looks like our friend Captain Hook and all along the La. and Miss. coastline are going to have a very rough week starting Monday, 24 August.
![Sad :(](./images/smilies/icon_sad.gif)
![Sad :(](./images/smilies/icon_sad.gif)
![Sad :(](./images/smilies/icon_sad.gif)
Fair winds,
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
-
- Posts: 3582
- Joined: Oct 6th, '08, 07:30
- Location: S/V Far Reach: CD 36 #61 www.farreachvoayges.net www.farreachvoyages.com
Re: Bad Feeling
Wow. That is something. Well I hope they stay low cat 1 and move fast. This kind of thing is just exhausting to deal with when you are squared off with them. I wish all y’all the best of luck not only with your boats but your homes and communities too. Stay safe.
Re: Bad Feeling
One thing I'm thankful for is the new marina I moved to has floating docks. So no worries about adjusting dock lines as the water rises.
Capt Hook
s/v Kumbaya
Cape Dory 31, Hull No. 73
New Orleans, LA
s/v Kumbaya
Cape Dory 31, Hull No. 73
New Orleans, LA