Hurricane Matthew

[Sea Hunt Video]

Oh oh

[mgphl52]

No fun, but could be worse forecast... at least for now.



I'll wait till Saturday to decide what action to take.

[Jim Walsh]

Roberto, I'll see your "oh oh" and raise you a "oh boy"

[barfwinkle]

Robert & Michael

They can't all be wrong can they?? Just asking!

Fair winds (ONLY!)

[Sea Hunt Video]

During the day on Sunday, 23 August 1992, NHC/NOAA and all of the other storm forecasters projected Hurricane Andrew would make landfall along the sparsely populated Miami-Dade County/Broward County line. This area of South Florida is approximately 55-60 miles north of me.

At approximately 1800 hours on Sunday evening, 23 August 1992, as my neighbors and I, oblivious to the Hell that would be coming) were enjoying a "hurricane party" in our cul-de-sac (beer, burgers, hotdogs, musica, etc.) Hurricane Andrew made a 1 degree turn to the south. 1 degree. That 1 degree made all the difference. Instead of making landfall at a then sparsely populated area of South Florida (the proverbial "Dade-Broward line"), the eye of Hurricane Andrew made landfall on Monday morning, 24 August 1992, at 0455 hours at Homestead Air Force Base. It then moved directly west (270 degrees) with my home (and thousands of others) directly absorbing without any respite the north wall of Hurricane Andrew for more than 5 hours (0330-0830 hours). As those who follow hurricanes well know (I never did until Andrew; I now check daily during "H season") the north wall (or what is deemed "the dirty side" depending on the direction of movement) is the most severe. We had sustained 165+ mph winds (gusts were much higher). Andrew was at least a Cat.5 hurricane at landfall. The NHC/NOAA wind meter was blown off its tower when winds hit 165 mph. No one knows how much higher the winds became. Several tornadoes were spawned by the north wall including one just 3 streets east from my home. Three (3) members of a family (including 2 children) just 2 blocks from my home were killed when their second floor collapsed onto the first floor, crushing three to death. 80% of my roof was blown away. All windows, doors, etc. were blown away. Without exaggeration when I crawled out of the rubble, I had four concrete walls partially intact and 20% of a roof. All else was literally gone (it was absorbed by the Everglades miles west).

I am hopeful that somehow this storm (Matthew) weakens before crossing over any populated land masses (Jamaica, Cuba, Hispanola, Bahamas, South Florida). Unfortunately, all of the conditions necessary for an increase in intensity are present (limited wind sheer, very warm water, slow steering currents). I'm almost 70 and as they say "I've been to Hell and back more than once" and have seen my share of destruction and death. A Cat 3, 4 or 5 in South Florida would be yet another Hell for all of us. I, for one, don't need any more reminders. Hopefully Matthew dissipates or goes out to sea. Fingers crossed.

[abcnuzeman]

I was scheduled to depart Stanford, Ct. on Saturday as delivery crew on a Jeanneau 44 to the BVI. Just heard from the Captain that we will delay until sometime next week when the forecast and path become clearer. No point in getting in front of this thing.

[Jim Walsh]

I was scheduled to depart Stanford, Ct. on Saturday as delivery crew on a Jeanneau 44 to the BVI. Just heard from the Captain that we will delay until sometime next week when the forecast and path become clearer. No point in getting in front of this thing.

Departing for the Carribean during the hurricane season.

[Sea Hunt Video]

As this chart suggests, October remains a high risk month for hurricanes in the Atlantic as well as in the Gulf of Mexico. I agree with Jim W. that transiting from Ct. to BVIs in October may not be a good idea. Should Hurricane Matthew miss the mainland USA, there is little doubt there is another system waiting its turn to head across the Atlantic to wreck havoc on sailors. Ct. is beautiful in the Fall (foliage, chill in the air, etc.) Enjoy it and move the delivery towards the end of November or early December.

[Sea Hunt Video]

Hurricane Matthew is now at 105 mph; projected to increase to major hurricane strength Do they have any lakes to go sailing in Montana

[Capt Hook]

No fun, but could be worse forecast... at least for now.



I'll wait till Saturday to decide what action to take.

Don't know how you managed to do this but you posted on the 28th and it's automatically updating.

[Sea Hunt Video]

Current NOAA/NHC thinking and projecting discussion. Not good for Florida.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... ?text=disc

Hurricane Matthew is now a Cat. 5 storm (160+ mph) - very, very rare. First Cat. 5 in Atlantic area since Hurricane Felix in 2007 - 9 years ago.

For those in Florida please be mindful of the substantial current distance of Hurricane Matthew to Florida. During its path north if it makes just a slight deviation west anywhere along that path (the high pressure system in the Atlantic does not move as fast as projected; or the low trough moving East slows down) then South Florida can easily be ground zero for a Cat. 5 hurricane, that is, another Hurricane Andrew.

Tomorrow I start "hurricane prep" (prep all shutters, install some shutters; buy extra food, waters, batteries, cash from bank, keep truck tank full, collect all important documents in waterproof container, etc.)

S/V Bali Ha'i is on her trailer at home in the driveway. I have her strapped down to the trailer with two (2) substantial web straps. Right now the mast is lying fore/aft and resting on the pulpit/pushpit. I may try to bring the mast down and put it on the ground. Not sure. I don't know of anything else I can do. All the canvas was removed prior to transport home last month.

[mgphl52]

Don't know how you managed to do this but you posted on the 28th and it's automatically updating.

No magic on my part! Wunderground.com is doing it all... the line I plugged in was a link to the 5-day forecast of the 14th storm of 2016. By quoting my post, you also accomplished posting an 'auto-majik' updating image

[Astronomertoo]

I was scheduled to depart Stanford, Ct. on Saturday as delivery crew on a Jeanneau 44 to the BVI. Just heard from the Captain that we will delay until sometime next week when the forecast and path become clearer. No point in getting in front of this thing.

Cool, and a sensationally smart choice.
BC

[John Stone]

Mathew is very dangerous. Potentially a very bad hombre for the East coast of the US. You can bet we are keeping an eye on him in NC.

[Sea Hunt Video]

NOAA/NHC has been very good with direction modeling. They are still "iffy" when it comes to storm strength. Hopefully, the eastern tip of Haiti will not take too severe a hit. They have suffered enough over the past few (many actually) years.