Where's the disconnect?

marka · Post by **marka** » Sep 8th, '10, 14:35

Today on Lake Ontario the NAtional Weather Service says it's blowing around 30 kts with waves around 10 ft. I believe them.

I'm sure that if I chose to go out today I would "be OK" but I know the main would be double-reefed and the (100%) jib would be rolled up on the furler to the point where it was no larger than a hankercheif (or T-shirt, choose your metaphore). I also know that under these conditions, the rail would be in the water and i'd be plenty wet and more than a little tired from pulling everything that needs to be pulled.

My question is this; i've read a number of posts by folks that have been out in 30+ kts and they give the impression it's no-big deal. I certainly understand it's not overly dangerous if you know what you're doing and are capable (and there is a difference), but it's certainly more than i would want to deal with on my own.

Am i all wet (metaphorically)?

Ray Garcia · Post by **Ray Garcia** » Sep 8th, '10, 15:27

30 knots all reefed down in protected waters is not 30 knots in open water. 30 knots = work + wet

Sure some people say they went out in 30 knots. I have too and it was work and I did get wet. Did not take me long to head back home. If I were in a larger boat I may have lasted longer.

Cathy Monaghan · Post by **Cathy Monaghan** » Sep 8th, '10, 15:33

On the ocean 30 kts of wind is not such a big deal. The waves can get really big but they're usually pretty far apart so the ride isn't too bad as long as you're not taking them on the beam. But you WILL be very wet.

On a lake or bay however, the waves generated by 30 kt winds are much closer together -- a short, ugly chop. Both you and the boat are likely to take a beating. So it's best to wait for calmer conditions unless you really want to practice your heavy weather boat handling skills.

Cathy
CD32 Realization, #3
Rahway, NJ
Raritan Bay

marka · Post by **marka** » Sep 8th, '10, 15:46

Yes, Oswego is particularly bad because the water goes from about 200 ft to about 75 feet a mile or so off shore. With the wind out of the west they really pile up on the eastern end of the lake.

Thanks

Duncan · Post by **Duncan** » Sep 8th, '10, 15:55

I think the disconnect is that people systematically over-report wind speeds. A true 30 knots is a Beaufort Force 7 "near gale", with foam and wind-borne spray and way more wind than most people ever have to deal with. In my CD 27, like yours, I would definitely be under storm canvas, and even so, feeling the boat was very hard-pressed.

But that's in a real, sustained near gale.

I think it's human nature, people will react to the apparent wind, or the gusts, and kind of add 5 knots anyway. I think that many times when people will claim 30 knots, it was really a lot more like 20 most of the time.

Neil Gordon · Post by **Neil Gordon** » Sep 8th, '10, 19:18

Those with the spinny roundy thingies on top of their mast tend to look at the meter and see where the needle spikes. Then they tell you they were out in 30 knot winds.

Overall, you don't get the full effect unless the 30 knots are sustained winds and the sea state (and fetch) have time to respond.

Personally, I'm okay with sustained winds because reefed down the boat is happy enough. It's wind + big gusts that are the most work for me. Last Sunday we had sustained winds in the teens and steady gusts to the mid/high twenties. I was either going too slow or two fast; either under powered or over powered.

Troy Scott · Post by **Troy Scott** » Sep 8th, '10, 22:55

30 knots (sustained) in shallow water with a long fetch will give you a MUCH rougher ride that 30 knots in deep water. Mobile Bay, which is a large body of tidal water that seems to be mostly around 10 feet deep, gets very rough. When I was younger I would often singlehand in those conditions, but it was wet and difficult in small Cape Dorys.

Oswego John · Post by **Oswego John** » Sep 9th, '10, 00:21

marka wrote:Today on Lake Ontario the NAtional Weather Service says it's blowing around 30 kts with waves around 10 ft. I believe them.

Am i all wet (metaphorically)?

Hi Mark,

No. You're not all wet, not by a long shot.

I have been reading what others have said about the weather this past weekend. We had the same weather and then moreso over the weekend.

As you know, since I have retired, I have a new job. Every morning I have to go down to the water and check that the lake is still there. Then I drive over to the river and make sure that it is flowing in the right direction. Then it's off to the bait shops to check on the local fishing, (salmon are schooling out in the harbour) and listen to the latest local news.

By this time, six or so mugs of coffee later, I'm pretty tuckered out but I force myself to go over to the charter fishing docks and say my daily hellos. As you probably realize, it's a dirty job but as the Duke says, somebodys gotta to do it. It's my job. That's what I do. I'm not griping.

Saturday the wind was howling like a banshee. The west wind was crashing the waves over the breakwater with unimaginable power. I don't know the reason but about every seventh wave was larger than the others and its spray would reach higher than the lighthouse, which is over three stories tall.

A loaded barge that was tied up to the Port Authority wharf broke loose and was captured half way to the bridge, up by the motels. This rough weather was caused by a strong front coming in from the west and was acerbated by the cyclonic effect of Hurricane Earl moving up off of the New England coast.

How bad was the weather? The salmon and lake trout fishing is peaking. The charter boats get $600.00 or more per trip. They make two trips a day, early morning and afternoon. Not one seasoned captain was foolhardy enough to attempt to troll even in the harbour, never mind going outside into the lake. There were no happy campers around the docks last weekend.

Maybe the weather guy said 30 mph wind. If I had to guesstimate, the gusts were up around 45 or 50 mph.

BTW: there was not one boat of any size out on the water. Well, maybe one. The USCG cutter was rocking and rolling for a short time but never went outside.

On days like last weekend, keep your CD 27 tied up. Read a book, clean out the garage. Do anything except don't go sailing. As Annie sings, "The sun will come out tomorrow". And it did.

O J

Dick Barthel · Post by **Dick Barthel** » Sep 9th, '10, 06:13

There are weather stations placed strategically which give real time and historical wind speeds and sea state information at various points, e.g. New London Ledge in my area. I think they have them offshore too. That should help with those who don't beleive your fish stories either.

In response to Neil's point about gusts being measured at the mast head, I do remember reading that wind speed is higher at the mast head than at the water because of friction which might add to that fiction.

Dick

barfwinkle · Post by **barfwinkle** » Sep 9th, '10, 08:11

Here is a link to regional mesonet stations that update their information about every 20-30 minutes and then that data are broadcast to the regional National Weather Service. I think its just too cool. Just mouse over any of the plots and get current plus hi/lows within the past 24 hours. A mobile phone version but you'll need to know the call letters of the station you wish to monitor.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.p ... &density=1

Fair Winds and

I Hope to see you in Havre de Grace

Mike Raehl · Post by **Mike Raehl** » Sep 9th, '10, 11:25

NOAA has a weather station about two miles off shore from Chicago. I enjoy looking at the data for the days when we sailed and the days when we didn't. My wife and I had a wonderful sail Sunday afternoon, the 5th, but I am glad we didn't go out on Monday or Tuesday with 20 to 30 knots sustained and 40 to 50 knots peak. Although not on the chart, last Saturday was just like Tuesday.

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/metdata/plot_5dy.php?site=chi

marka · Post by **marka** » Sep 9th, '10, 12:16

OJ is right about the weather this past saturday. The Wx station on the VHF reported winds of not less than 30 kts and waves of 13 ft as measured at the central lake ontarion buouy.

Oswego John · Post by **Oswego John** » Sep 9th, '10, 12:40

It's good every once in a while to have a very windy day like we had last Saturday.

It blows the stink off a person.

Sorry, gotta go and get back to work. Gots to check on all those boats coming through the Canal. Phew, it ain't easy.

Busy, busy, busy.

O J

barfwinkle · Post by **barfwinkle** » Sep 9th, '10, 13:06

I can't get the site to provide a link directly to Oswego, so when Oklahoma pops up just move to the northeast until you fine the fine metropolis of Oswego. Below is some data from Sept 8th and the station id is KFZY (as in fuzzy with a K prefix).

Date/time/temp/dewpt/relhum/wind dir/wind speed w/gust
08 Sep 5:54 pm 60 53 78 W 8
08 Sep 4:54 pm 63 52 67 W 16G26
08 Sep 2:54 pm 62 55 78 WSW 8G17
08 Sep 1:54 pm 60 53 78 W 16G21
08 Sep 12:54 pm 64 54 W 22G30
08 Sep 11:54 am 63 54 W 20G29
08 Sep 11:29 am 63 55 W 14G24
08 Sep 11:12 am 63 55 W 20G28
08 Sep 10:54 am 61 55 WNW 21G31
08 Sep 9:54 am 65 54 68 W 13G22

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.p ... &density=1

Oswego John · Post by **Oswego John** » Sep 9th, '10, 13:14

Hi Bill,

I'm curious to find out what the wind speed and gusts were over the weekend, especially on Sat 9/4/10.

I plan and hope to see you again in HdG in Nov.

O J

The Cape Dory Board

Where's the disconnect?

Where's the disconnect?

Real 30 knot winds?

30 knots in shallow water

Re: Where's the disconnect?

weather stations

Weather Stations

Lake Michigan, Chicago data.....

High Wind

Wind Velocity