Earl

[Sea Hunt]

I was surprised at the number of dodgers/biminis and mainsails w/covers still up.

Depending on how close Earl gets to Rhode Island, the cloth won't be "up" by Saturday afternoon. It will be shredded.

I have seen many pictures of what sailboats look like after a "mild" Cat. 1 storm that did not remove all sails, biminis, dodgers, etc. versus sailboats that did remove everything. It is a striking contrast.

Interestingly, almost all of the marinas take post storm pictures of the boats at, "on", "under" or "in" the docks, as well as those on moorings and those "on" the nearby roads and highways. Partly for insurance claim purposes but also to show boaters what will happen if they do not take proper precautions.

[Andy Denmark]

Happy to report from home that the after effects of Earl seem to be some leaves in the yard and a high water mark just over the dock boards. No apparent damage anywhere.

Boats are all fine and secure after Mother Nature's pressure washing.

We have worse spring nor'easters. Still, with a slight veer to the west and holding Cat 4 and Earl would have been one for the books. I am thankful!

Now to undo all this stuff ...............
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Genetically modified food

[Neil Gordon]

As I've noted to others, Mother Nature pays attention. The more we prepare, the more she eases Earl bit by bit to the Northeast. Better this way than the other way.

Thanks for the report and good to hear that all is well.

[Warren Kaplan]

Andy,

Great!! I just got home from work and drove over the Great South Bay Bridge in Suffolk County, NY. Suffolk had "warnings" since yesterday. There weren't even white caps on the water below.

I'm not complaining mind you. The weather gods cast a benevolent eye on us poor sailors and made the storm weaken and track slight more east than expected.

I'm drinking a double MacAlan's and toasting the weather gods for their charity!!

[Neil Gordon]

Non event in Boston Harbor, too.

[Dean Abramson]

I wish I had not pulled the boat. Oh well.

The more we prepare, the more she eases Earl bit by bit to the Northeast.

You guys owe me!

Dean

[Solmar]

While at the SSCA GAM this Aug . my #1 question to everyone was, "What do you do when a hurricane is forecasted". The majority of them answered was to "run & hide", but the one that they all mentioned was that they look at the forecasted track and head in that direction. The reason is that the 5-3 day forecasted is 99% wrong. I was waiting until Thursday to make my discission on what to do, if Earl's track was going to be closer then I would have "ducked & covered".
Glad that everyone made it trough with no problems.

[Ron M.]

We really dodged a bullet this time. After all that preparation I don't think I saw more than a few 40 mph gusts and maybe 3" of rain. Knock on wood. Sailing should be great this afternoon.
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Mercedes-Benz 560

[M. R. Bober]

While at the SSCA GAM this Aug . my #1 question to everyone was, "What do you do when a hurricane is forecasted". The majority of them answered was to "run & hide", but the one that they all mentioned was that they look at the forecasted track and head in that direction. The reason is that the 5-3 day forecasted is 99% wrong. I was waiting until Thursday to make my discission on what to do, if Earl's track was going to be closer then I would have "ducked & covered".
Glad that everyone made it trough with no problems.

I have no idea who told you that the 3-5 track is 99% wrong, but I wouldn't bet my life on it.

Mitchell Bober
Sunny Lancaster (where several Cape Dorys are still hurricane ready), VA

[Kilgore]

20kts, gusting to 27 in my home waters....






and I'm stuck at work.

[Troy Scott]

Hmmm...., in my experience, having been a sailor most of my life as well as a pilot for the last 24 years, and with over 50 years of comparing the forecasts with the actual weather, I can say that forecasting was pretty good then, and much better now. Of course if you expect 100% accuracy with regard to time, precip, wind direction, and every other detail, you will almost always be disappointed. However, if the information we have available now is understood and evaluated with some common sense and experience, it is VERY valuable. What they say will happen almost always does happen; it may be displaced somewhat in time and space, but it happens. I have little patience with someone who would say the forecasters are 99% wrong. Consider the old days along the Gulf Coast: I knew an old lady who, as a child, left with family in south Alabama for a buggy ride to visit friends and family. Along the way, they encountered a Summer thunderstorm, which is very common. They ducked into a barn for cover, expecting the storm to be over in a few minutes. They had no idea that it was just going to get worse and worse, all day, all that night, and well into the next day, and that their lives were actually in danger. All this because they had no forecast. Back then there were no crews risking their lives flying into hurricanes to gather the best information, and of course no satellites. We definitely have it better now, and they aren't wrong 99% of the time.

[Zeida]

I second Troy Scott... those of us who have to deal with hurricanes AND forecasts yearly know better than to disregard them. We follow them closely and know that everything can vary by degrees as the storms move through different environments. No one can forecast 100%. We in Florida appreciate even 85%. I do not regret for one second having dismantled Bandoldera and keep her secured to her slip until the end of November. We are ever so thankful that we have dodged another bullet, but it sure could have come straight for us.

But I do understand Dean, since the sailing season up north is sooooo short. We are blessed with year-round sailing down here, EXCEPT during the hurricane months, and then it is much better to be safe than sorry.
Thanks God the entire Cape Dory fleet made out fine this time. Now, looking forward to the General Meeting in Nov.!

[Cathy Monaghan]

We got lucky here in NJ. Earl veered of eastward and left us pretty much uneffected. The beaches down the Jersey shore got the worst of it but it wasn't too bad. It's windy here today though.

And we were unlucky too. We've had drought conditions all summer. We're on water restrictions -- can't wash the car, water the lawn, etc. Our lawn is dead, brown and crunchy. Anway, we were hoping to get some rain out of this storm, but we didn't even get a drop.

From the Philadelphia Inquirer:
Earl spares Jersey Shore

From The Star Ledger:
Earl path left N.J. unscathed, but experts fear dangerous conditions remain in the aftermath

Cathy
CD32 Realization, #3
Rahway, NJ
Raritan Bay

[Bob Luby]

We keep Yankee Dory in Pine Island Bay, Groton CT.

I paid close attention to the forecast track including wind probabilities, which were for a less than 20 pct chance of >50kt
winds. I took down the jib and staysail. Doubled up a couple of spring lines.

I looked last night at the New London Ledge Light weather, and the wind appeared to peak at around 30 - 35 kts, not even a nor'easter.

Beautiful day outside, now.
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GREEN CRACK
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Vapir air one vaporizer

[Joe Myerson]

Here on Buzzards Bay the Hurricane Warning dropped to a Tropical Storm Warning before what was left of Earl hit. We got several inches of rain (maybe as many as 4) and gusts that might have reached 40 knots.

Today it's still very windy -- so much so that I had difficulty rowing out to my boat, and once I got there I decided not to try to bend on the sails singlehanded in such a breeze.

Now it's beautiful, clear and cool, and wind is supposed to drop a bit tomorrow.

I'm not sure about the accuracy of the storm-track predictions. I haven't made a study of it, but it seems to me that they are becoming increasingly accurate. Still, it's always a relief to have the storm veer to the east.

--Joe
P.S. As I was heading onto Cape Cod this morning, I noticed a veritable convoy of utility trucks going in the opposite direction. It appears that the local emergency-management agencies have learned a lot since Katrina and the Great Northeast Ice Storm. I'm glad they were on Cape for the non-event that turned out to be Earl.