Any Cape Dory Icebreakers in Great Britain?

[elbows wychulis]

North Atlantic Current Seen Slowing in Ominous Finding
Britain faces big chill as ocean current slows

The Sunday Times (U.K.), May 8, 2005

Climate change researchers have detected the first signs of a slowdown in the Gulf Stream -- the mighty ocean current that keeps Britain and Europe from freezing.

They have found that one of the "engines" driving the Gulf Stream -- the sinking of supercooled water in the Greenland Sea -- has weakened to less than a quarter of its former strength.

The weakening, apparently caused by global warming, could herald big changes in the current over the next few years or decades. Paradoxically, it could lead to Britain and northwestern and Europe undergoing a sharp drop in temperatures.

Such a change has long been predicted by scientists but the new research is among the first to show clear experimental evidence of the phenomenon.

Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at Cambridge University, hitched rides under the Arctic ice cap in Royal Navy submarines and used ships to take measurements across the Greenland Sea.

"Until recently we would find giant 'chimneys' in the sea where columns of cold, dense water were sinking from the surface to the seabed 3,000 metres below, but now they have almost disappeared," he said.

"As the water sank it was replaced by warm water flowing in from the south, which kept the circulation going. If that mechanism is slowing, it will mean less heat reaching Europe."

Such a change could have a severe impact on Britain, which lies on the same latitude as Siberia and ought to be much colder. The Gulf Stream transports 27,000 times more heat to British shores than all the nation's power supplies could provide, warming Britain by 5-8C.

Wadhams and his colleagues believe, however, that just such changes could be well under way. They predict that the slowing of the Gulf Stream is likely to be accompanied by other effects, such as the complete summer melting of the Arctic ice cap by as early as 2020 and almost certainly by 2080. This would spell disaster for Arctic wildlife such as the polar bear, which could face extinction.

Wadhams' submarine journeys took him under the North Polar ice cap, using sonar to survey the ice from underneath. He has measured how the ice has become 46% thinner over the past 20 years. The results from these surveys prompted him to focus on a feature called the Odden ice shelf, which should grow out into the Greenland Sea every winter and recede in summer.

The growth of this shelf should trigger the annual formation of the sinking water columns. As sea water freezes to form the shelf, the ice crystals expel their salt into the surrounding water, making it heavier than the water below.

However, the Odden ice shelf has stopped forming. It last appeared in full in 1997. "In the past we could see nine to 12 giant columns forming under the shelf each year. In our latest cruise, we found only two and they were so weak that the sinking water could not reach the seabed," said Wadhams, who disclosed the findings at a meeting of the European Geosciences Union in Vienna.

The exact effect of such changes is hard to predict because currents and weather systems take years to respond and because there are two other areas around the north Atlantic where water sinks, helping to maintain circulation. Less is known about how climate change is affecting these.

However, Wadhams suggests the effect could be dramatic. "One of the frightening things in the film The Day After Tomorrow showed how the circulation in the Atlantic Ocean is upset because the sinking of cold water in the north Atlantic suddenly stops," he said.

"The sinking is stopping, albeit much more slowly than in the film -- over years rather than a few days. If it continues, the effect will be to cool the climate of northern Europe."

One possibility is that Europe will freeze; another is that the slowing of the Gulf Stream may keep Europe cool as global warming heats the rest of the world ' but with more extremes of weather.

[Guest]

n/m

[Carter Brey]

I suppose the most immediate, and certainly the most welcome, effect will be a reduction in the number of middle-class British men wearing sandals over socks.

[Greg Kozlowski]

Regarding the Brits and their sandals over socks hypothesis, I mean.

Greg
Sherpa, CD36

[jacka]

because it happens every year on our southern coast--the snowbirds, male and female, show up with sandals over socks--That's the way we spot the newcomers

[Oswego John]

Hi all,

As far as British gents wearing socks with sandals. I suppose that they consider it to be very propah. As the old Brit saying goes, "Different strokes for different blokes."

I'm wondering what they call those white, ankle high socks that the British police wear. Are they called BOBBY SOCKS?

Sheesh, gimme a break,
O J

[Warren Kaplan]

Perhaps the socks and sandal crowd thinks the practice is "propah" and fashionable. No doubt the sight of socks and sandals was the inspiration for this observation by a fellow resident of the U.K.

Fashion is a form of ugliness so intolerable that we have to change it every six months.
(Oscar Wilde)

Of course the socks and sandal devotees just tore up the timetable and will forever be mired in the past!

[elbows wychulis]

Time to update your river charts:

Study: Climate change to swell, dry up rivers

05/14/2005
By YASUSHI OKUBO The Asahi Shimbun

Like oil in the 20th century, water could be the resource that triggers armed conflicts at the end of this century, according to experts forecasting changes in the world's major rivers caused by global warming.

Big increases and decreases in the flow volume of the rivers will leave some areas parched while putting others under the constant threat of flooding, according to the research group.

The researchers included Daisuke Nohara of the Japan Science and Technology Agency and others from the Meteorological Research Institute and the University of Tokyo's Institute of Industrial Science.

They made their forecasts for the flow volumes of 24 major rivers based on expected climatic changes between 2081 and 2100.

The group will report its findings at a conference sponsored by the Meteorological Society of Japan beginning Sunday in Tokyo.

According to Nohara, the research group used 15 of the latest weather models compiled by institutes around the world to forecast temperatures and rainfall at the turn of the next century.

Temperatures around the world will rise an average of 2.7 degrees over current levels. Average temperatures on land are expected to increase by 3.7 degrees, according to the study.

Changing wind patterns are also expected to reduce rainfall in certain areas, including the river basins of the Euphrates and Danube rivers.

In fact, the region from the Mediterranean to the Middle East is expected to experience a decrease in rainfall of between 0.1 and 0.5 millimeter per day.

The drier conditions will mean that the little rain the Middle East does receive will be soaked up by the ground before reaching rivers.

That will lead, for example, to a 41-percent decrease in flow volume for the Euphrates, according to the study. The Danube flow will be reduced by 23 percent.

``In the river basins of the Euphrates and Mekong, which are also expected to be regions of population growth, there will be concerns about conflicts over water rights,'' Nohara said. ``There will be a need to think about how to use the limited water resources.''

On the other hand, the higher temperatures will melt more ice caps and snow in regions near the North Pole, giving those areas an expected increase in rainfall of between 0.1 and 0.2 millimeter a day, according to the study.

Areas from India to East Asia are also forecast to receive similar increases in precipitation, leading to sudden surges in the flow volume of rivers, especially in Southeast Asia.

In addition to the heavy rainfall already recorded in that region, rain that is not soaked up by the ground will flow into those rivers.

The increase in the Ganges is a big cause for concern.

The Ganges flow volume is expected to rise by 15 percent in periods of the year with heavier rainfall. There will likely be a greater risk of flooding in the region.

Another river expected to experience a large increase in flow volume is the Yukon, with a 23-percent jump, according to the study.

But the Rio Grande, which serves as a border between the United States and Mexico, will experience a 26-percent decrease, according to the study.

No predictions were made for changes in Japanese rivers because the models were ambiguous as to whether rainfall here would increase or decrease in the late 21st century.

The Central Environment Council issued a report Thursday calling for measures to keep the rise in temperatures due to global warming in 2100 within 2 degrees of levels of the 18th and 19th centuries prior to the Industrial Revolution.

A rise over 2 degrees would have serious effects on the global environment, which could damage human health, water resources and food production, the council said.(IHT/Asahi: May 14,2005)

[Greg Kozlowski]

I happen to be sitting on a couch in our apartment in Tokyo this very moment with the Saturday 14.05.05 edition of the Asahi Shimbun ( actually a part of the International Herald Tribune now) next to me with the very article you have reproduced here on page 23.

Do you think you are providing some kind of news service or what?
Send it to where it may make a difference. I very much doubt a small bunch of sailors whose interest in classic boats already puts them in a tiny minority would be of much significance in affecting issues of climate change.

Nice intentions wrong group me thinks, mate.

Greg
Sherpa CD36

[elbows wychulis]

Of course you are right. I should have taken it over to the Cruising World Forum where the academic professionals hang out.

[bilofsky]

Mr. Elbows - this post is in fact off topic, and is edging toward being political. See the FAQ for this board, which prohibits political discussion in the interest of keeping this a safe, civil place to discuss Cape Dory boats.

A reply to your last post was judged to be a negative personal comment and has been deleted.

Any further heat or acrimony in this thread will result in its complete deletion.

This is not to judge the importance of any particular issue, just the extent to which a topic or tone fits the boundaries of what is allowed here.

- Walt Bilofsky
Assistant Webmaster

[jacka]

Bravo, Walt Bilofsky, bravo
jacka

[neil]

HAHAHA!
Carter you are a riot!

I suppose the most immediate, and certainly the most welcome, effect will be a reduction in the number of middle-class British men wearing sandals over socks.

[neil]

Um....
I think this is quite interesting, I live on an island that 18 feet high at the highest point.

Hows the weather in Tokyo?

I happen to be sitting on a couch in our apartment in Tokyo this very moment with the Saturday 14.05.05 edition of the Asahi Shimbun ( actually a part of the International Herald Tribune now) next to me with the very article you have reproduced here on page 23.

Do you think you are providing some kind of news service or what?
Send it to where it may make a difference. I very much doubt a small bunch of sailors whose interest in classic boats already puts them in a tiny minority would be of much significance in affecting issues of climate change.

Nice intentions wrong group me thinks, mate.

Greg
Sherpa CD36

[Greg Kozlowski]

As one would expect with global climate change, the weather in Tokyo has been weird. We had the worst typhoon season on record for a long time, a March which had temperatures more common to June and, again, broke records for being one of the warmest ever and, to everyone's surprise, this late in May there are still iceflows off northern Hokkaido which are presenting a navigational hazard to shipping for the first time since anyone can remember this late in the season.

Greg