Hurricane Season 2022

[Jim Walsh]

Bermuda is experiencing 63 knot gusts at this time. They have approximately 6 hours to go before Fiona makes her closest point of approach. Yikes.

[Sea Hunt Video]

Bermuda survived Hurricane Fiona with minimal damage and, importantly, as of yesterday's reports, no deaths. Very lucky

Now, we have soon-to-be Hurricane Ian headed to Florida. It looks like the entire state will soon be within "the cone of uncertainty". Projected landfall is late Wednesday, early Thursday as a Major ("M") hurricane, Cat. 2/3.

Some models suggest Ian could then track north along the Eastern seaboard for a period of time.

In preparation, I have stocked up on water, food, batteries, gas in the truck, etc. I have also layed in a sufficient supply of Guinness to help me weather the aftermath of Ian.

Importantly, if anyone spots Jim Cantore please report your sitting on this board. He was in Bermuda (I think) but no recent citings. Thank you.

[John Stone]

Great to hear from you Roberto. Good luck to you. It looks bad for the west coast of FLA though a lot can change before landfall. I grew up and learned to sail there as a kid. We still have family in Sarasota. Fingers crossed for Floridians.

[Sea Hunt Video]

Mike and Toni:

I assume you guys are carefully watching soon-to-be Hurricane Ian. It looks like it is tracking a little more north. Niceville may get some strong hurricane force winds next Thursday/Friday.

BE SAFE; STAY SAFE

Jim Cantore has been sighted in Clearwater Bay, Florida. EMS officials are deciding course(s) of action in light of this development.

[John Stone]

The ECMWF model on Tropical Tidbits, as of 2045 25 Sept, has the track of Hurricane Ian absolutely grinding up the west coast of FLA. That would be a brutal landfall. There is still time for course change but they have gotten pretty good at forecast accuracy. I am sure there are a lot of folks making preparations. Best of luck to all Floridians.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[wikakaru]

I found that site more complicated than I'd like. Here's the hurricane "spaghetti model" forecast I like to look at: https://web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models/models/

--Jim

[Sea Hunt Video]

This is website for NOAA/NHC hurricane tracking.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Over the years I have found it to be the most accurate, cautious, easy to access, and simple to understand.

John's website reference is excellent for accurate, real time, interactive, visual projections with access to several different projection models. I go to it all the time during hurricane season.

The European model (ECMWF) is the one John posted. Another good one is the American model (GFS), run by NOAA. You can "tweak" each model if you want or just leave it in the default mode. Historically, for reasons I do not understand, the ECMWF model seems to be more accurate, but only slightly. With Hurricane Ian, the Euro model kept saying "more East, more East". The American model kept saying "no, more north, more north". It looks like the Euro model was/is more accurate with this system.

I have 5-6 different weather websites I check daily whenever there is a system anywhere near Florida. I am told I have an addiction.

I have relatives and friends in the Tampa area. They are making preparations for a very bad Cat. 4 hurricane to make landfall somewhere near Tampa/St. Petersburg later this week. They have never been through a real hurricane before. Should be interesting.

[Sea Hunt Video]

I forgot to give access procedures for the NOAA/NHC site. Sorry.

From the NOAA/NHC website click on the storm system you are checking. In this case, Ian.

You will see seven (7) small screens near the top of this new page. Click on the small screen that says "Warning/Cone Static Images"

Near the middle of this new screen click on "ON" for Forecast Track Line.

There is much data/facts at the bottom of the screen.

Also, the other six (6) small screens have a lot of info about water levels, storm surge, wind impact areas, etc.

I hope this helps.

BE SAFE; STAY SAFE

[John Stone]

Sadly Roberto's warnings appear to have come true for the gulf coast of FL. The Naples, Ft Myers, Punta Gorda areas look like they got smashed. The pictures coming in this afternoon along with inland flood are terrible.

Ian is reforming and heading up towards SC and possibly NC. I am not happy but fingers crossed it will move quickly. The storm force wind field is significant however. It's a big storm.

Levi Cowan has always done a very good job of explaining the details of the hurricane forecast and the models and data that support it. You can watch his latest video at the link below. It comes up at the top of the screen in his blog page. Also the GFS models are usually very accurate.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

The FR is on the hard but we are headed to the boat in the morning to make sure she is ready and probably strip the cover off if it's not already pouring down rain.

[sloopjohnl]

Best of luck to you John, and everyone in IAN's path. We are in Vero Beach, FL on the east coast and experienced 50 mph gusts and 5" of rain. When you look at a map of FL and see how far we are from Ft. Myers it pretty much tells you how big IAN was when it hit the gulf coast.

[John Stone]

Best of luck to you John, and everyone in IAN's path. We are in Vero Beach, FL on the east coast and experienced 50 mph gusts and 5" of rain. When you look at a map of FL and see how far we are from Ft. Myers it pretty much tells you how big IAN was when it hit the gulf coast.

We are good. Thanks. Just checked on the boat. Pouring down rain here. Wind not to bad. Could be much worse. Hope all the folks down in South Carolina make it through OK.

[gonesail]

we had an ugly northeaster in NE Florida. It's over now and the weather is perfect. There was some minor flooding but in general we were spared from the wrath of Ian.

[Sea Hunt Video]

I know hurricane season extends to the end of November and we all need to be cautious but this is a very nice-looking map of the Eastern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

[John Stone]

I know hurricane season extends to the end of November and we all need to be cautious but this is a very nice-looking map of the Eastern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Amen brother.