Hey Roberto!

[mgphl52]

Best get your Guinness stocked up... doesn't look to promising.
Be Safe!

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[Capt Hook]

I thought Roberto moved to Montana.
What fleet does Montana belong to?

[Sea Hunt Video]

Hello Mike and Captain Hook and all:

No, sadly, I have not yet moved to Montana. I am hunkered down in my "bunker" in Miami. TS Isaias looks like it is heading for South Florida. Fortunately, it is projected to be "only" a strong TS and not a strong H but, as we all know, NHC/NOAA stili "struggles" with trying to accurately predict storm strength along a given path. Time will tell.

I do have a sufficient supply of Guinness; always a top hurricane supply necessity.

It looks like all interests along Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina (John S.), Virginia, NJ, etc., need to keep a sharp weather eye on Isaias.

Be safe

On an unrelated note, sadly, for reasons not here relevant, it looks like I will soon have to part with my beloved S/V Bali Ha'i. I will try to provide more details at the end of "H season". Obviously, the status of Covid-19 in Florida and across our country will have an impact on this. Sad.

[mgphl52]

I do have a sufficient supply of Guinness; always a top hurricane supply necessity.

Glad you're staying well stocked! Be safe and drink one for me...

[Sea Hunt Video]

John S., I assume you are on top of this. If I recall correctly S/V Far Reach is on the hard with jack stands. I'm not very "nautical" but I believe the expression is "double up all lines".

As of 0800 hrs, NHC/NOAA projects Isaias to become a Cat. 2 for a brief period of time over the Bahamas and then settle back down to a Cat. 1. As we all know, NHC/NOAA is not very good at predicting wind strength along a path. Just 24 hrs ago it was not going to be anything more than a TS all the way up to Virginia. NHC/NOAA is very, very good at this stuff but even they acknowledge predicting wind strength is "challenging".

To all interests along the Eastern seaboard - BE SAFE

[Joe Myerson]

Roberto,
Stay safe, and savor your Guinness. If you lose power, remember they drink the stuff warm in its country of origin.

Best,

--Joe

[John Stone]

For the love of Mary. This is getting old. Onslow County just declared an emergency. We are right in the path in multiple models. Still a few days away though. We have time for a favorable break...Maybe we will get some luck. We don’t usually see hurricanes here till late Aug. The worst are usually Sept-Oct.

I’m at the boat. She is on the hard. The boat yard is hauling boats as fast as they come in. They have four travel lifts with one a 300 ton lift. They will work nonstop till they get all the boats in. This is a large facility (we are in a small subcontracted yard inside the big Jarett Bay complex) and it will likely be jam packed with boats by Monday morning.

Tomorrow or Sunday morning we will remove our boat cover and make sure the FR is battened down and secure on her stands. We will be keeping a close eye on this one.

As we were reminded from Hurricane Florence it isn’t always the high cat storms that cause the most damage. Size, rainfall, and slow forward movement creates a different paradigm. Florence was a low cat II and crushed eastern NC. The worst damage I have seen in probably two dozen hurricanes I have experienced. It’s kinda ironic...the call sign for my combat advisor team in Iraq was...HURRICANE.

Good luck to everyone.

Roberto. No surprise you are thinking about everyone else. Be safe my man. I know your plans for Bali Ha’i are changing and not the way you hoped. I am very sorry about that. Take care of yourself. We will have our Guinness’ together one day.

In the mean time...

[John Stone]

The latest “good news”....

[Sea Hunt Video]

John S., this is a little more encouraging. Some of the models suggest a further weakening before reaching Camp LeJeune area.

Unfortunately, there is another "system" out there heading NW in the general direction of South Carolina and North Carolina.

Southeast Florida was spared most of Isaias, fortunately. We had only sporadic TS gusts. I have not heard an update yet but I'm hopeful sailboats at the sailing club mooring field are all well and safe.

Given this years performance to date I am thinking of just leaving "H" shutters up until 30 November. My house is a bunker; a dark bunker but a bunker.

[John Stone]

John S., this is a little more encouraging. Some of the models suggest a further weakening before reaching Camp LeJeune area.

Unfortunately, there is another "system" out there heading NW in the general direction of South Carolina and North Carolina.

Southeast Florida was spared most of Isaias, fortunately. We had only sporadic TS gusts. I have not heard an update yet but I'm hopeful sailboats at the sailing club mooring field are all well and safe.

Given this years performance to date I am thinking of just leaving "H" shutters up until 30 November. My house is a bunker; a dark bunker but a bunker.

Copy all Roberto. Between the local wx folks, Tropical Tidbits, and the NHC it looks like we may all get spared. So, I guess I am wary but encouraged. The next 90 days are going to be painful....

[Jim Walsh]

Yikes. I’ve repositioned Orion from her slip, which is on the face of the dock, to a protected inner slip. All lines doubled, extra fenders out, sails lashed or removed. If the models are accurate I’ll be in the “dangerous semicircle” since it will pass west of my position.

[John Stone]

Yikes. I’ve repositioned Orion from her slip, which is on the face of the dock, to a protected inner slip. All lines doubled, extra fenders out, sails lashed or removed. If the models are accurate I’ll be in the “dangerous semicircle” since it will pass west of my position.

Hi Jim
Smart moves I’d say. I think you won’t see much though. It should degrade rapidly after coming ashore tonight. But you never know about storms like this. They can be unpredictable and recalibrate to changing conditions further along their track of destruction.

Better safe than sorry.

Good luck to you and Orion.

[Joe Myerson]

I just got back from Creme Brûlée's mooring, where I wrapped extra lines around the sale cover and the furled genoa, removed my Lifesling and compass cover and put out an extra safety line to the mooring. It looks like Cape Cod will only get some wind. Frankly, I was hoping for some tropical rains, as the gardens are parched.

Good luck to everybody!

--Joe

[Sea Hunt Video]

For those interested, this is what John S., Jim W. and Joe M. will be experiencing over the next few days. On its projected path both John and Jim will probably be on the "dirty side" of Isaias with stronger winds, the possibility of tornadoes and heavier rain bands. Joe may be spared really strong winds but still a lot of rain. Your gardens will get plenty Joe

Looks like my hometown will take a direct hit from Isais, albeit at a reduced TS strength.

Be safe all.

[John Stone]

For those interested, this is what John S., Jim W. and Joe M. will be experiencing over the next few days. On its projected path both John and Jim will probably be on the "dirty side" of Isaias with stronger winds, the possibility of tornadoes and heavier rain bands. Joe may be spared really strong winds but still a lot of rain. Your gardens will get plenty Joe

Looks like my hometown will take a direct hit from Isais, albeit at a reduced TS strength.

Be safe all.

Isaias has arrived. We are not getting much wind yet...but it Is pouring down rain now. I don’t think we are going to see the worst wind till tomorrow morning around 0400-0500. Looks like the eye will make landfall in the next 30 min or so near Myrtle Beach, SC...about 100 miles SW of us. She is moving NNE at a brisk 18 mph with max winds of 85 mph.