Hurricane Dorian and the Carolinas

[John Stone]

In my best John McEnroe: “YOU’VE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME.”

After the Far Reach’s near escape with Florence last year I want no part of Dorian—of course we did lose the roof of our house and our town got smashed. The Far Reach is on the hard this time. She is on the highest ground in the boatyard. We stripped sails a few days ago as part of winter storage so we just need to remove the hard dinghy and rig the runners.

Well, there is still plenty of time for this dangerous storm to keep turning to the ENE and head on out to the Atlantic and die there.

[Sea Hunt Video]

John:

If you want to have some heartburn run this model (assuming I copied and posted correctly).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 3106&fh=-6

[John Stone]

You pasted it right Roberto. Hopefully we won’t get pasted. Gayle and I ran that very model this morning. If that is what goes down, it will go right over the kids college (UNCW), our home, and the boatyard—a hat trick. That’s about five days away though. So we have some time for developing wx system intervention. Still, we are in the early phase of beginning to prepare.

[Sea Hunt Video]

Unlike John S., I am not capable of imitating John McEnroe's famous "YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME". However it certainly applies to the Atlantic basin this year. Five (5) systems churning away with Dorian the most destructive. I am beginning an active search for a concrete bomb shelter in South or North Dakota, Montana, or Wyoming.

[mgphl52]

I am beginning an active search for a concrete bomb shelter in South or North Dakota, Montana, or Wyoming.

That would make for some really tough sailing...

[tjr818]

There are quite a few old missile silos on the market, there are so many, one is bound to be near a lake.

Try here: https://www.missilebases.com/atlas-f

[mgphl52]

There are quite a few old missile silos on the market, there are so many, one is bound to be near a lake.

Try here: https://www.missilebases.com/atlas-f

Great idea until your knees/hips start getting old... I didn't see an elevator in the Atlas F unit.

[John Stone]

Pish posh. There are 21 million people living in Florida—four times many as live in Norway. That many people can't be wrong. No one place is really any safer than another. I lived in Montana for three years and though I loved it, winter--and I mean real freeze your ass off winter--arrives in October and doesn’t depart till early April. I have seen 6” of snow there in Aug and I’m not talking about in the Mountains. Hail the size of baseballs and tornadoes so wicked the ground trembles.

Florida might get schwacked but they will bounce back. It’s the American way. I doubt anyone can be better prepared than Roberto. Seriously though Roberto, you really need to get yourself a Honda 2000 EU generator to complete your hurricane preparations. You must be able to keep the refer cold so the Guinness is protected.

We went back to the Far Reach this morning. Got the Fatty Knees offloaded and onto the trailer. Stripped the pram hood, dinghy spars, whisker pole, and outboard and loaded into the trailer. Will go back tomorrow and grab the saw horses and see if my neighbors are policing up to prevent airborne missiles when the winds arrive.

The kids’s college, UNC Wilmington, cancelled classes for the rest of the week. Mandatory campus evacuation.

I wish the best for everyone that has to dance with Dorian.

Hopefully we will be spared.

Fingers crossed.

[Megunticook]

Pish posh. There are 21 million people living in Florida—four times many as live in Norway. That many people can't be wrong. No one place is really any safer than another.

Florida is particularly vulnerable to a couple of climate change consequences: sea level rise and more frequent and more intense hurricanes and storms. There will come a time, sooner than people think, when people who can will start leaving Florida. At some point it will become unaffordable to insure a home there and FEMA will no longer be able to cover the gap.

It's not just hurricanes--as the sea level rises, flooding in coastal areas from storm surges and king tides will worsen. It's already happening in places. It will get much worse in the coming years.

No place is 100% safe. But Florida is particularly vulnerable to the changes already under way.

[John Stone]

Climate change. True enough. Got family on the Gulf cost of Fl. I live on the Atlantic coast of NC. Yes, sea level is rising. Yes, hurricanes are devastating. Yes, property taxes are increasing. Yes, insurance is becoming less affordable—we are required to have wind and hail here and it has to be purchased separately since insurance companies won’t provide it.

I’m not trying to be argumentative, I’m just offering a different perspective. The entire US SE coast has low lying coastal areas vulnerable to rising sea levels ( so does the Netherlands). California has had devastating wild fires and drought. The west has suffered historic droughts. Parts of the east coast have been devastated by an unusual high rate of flash floods. The Great Plains have seen more dangerous tornadoes. The Mississippi River valley has shocking floods in the last 20 years several of which exceeded the one in 100 year and 500 year projections.

And that’s just the US. There are natural disasters taking place world wide.

My point is Florida still has a lot of magic and if it appeals to you I wouldn’t leave because of hurricanes. Leave it because it’s too expensive or too crowded because where you go there are going to be other life threatening issues to deal with from dangerous traffic to high crime rates to crazy neighbors to psychopath mass shooters. No one place is a hundred percent safe. Who can predict the place you move to is ultimately going to be safer for you than Florida.

The bigger issue to me is when people find themselves ensnarled in the relentless modern consumer culture and want to change that but can’t find a way out of the rat race to live a meaningful enjoyable life. That does not suggest some folks don’t enjoy a busy consumer oriented life. But I digress....

As we watch and wait for Dorian to arrive in NC just a year after Hurricane Florence smashed us I don’t think about moving. I think about the merits of a smaller house better designed and constructed to deal with hurricanes. I think about the value of having a cruising boat that can be easily hauled out of the water and trailered behind my truck so I can protect it from hurricanes and experience less anxiety in the process. I think about the value of a mast on a tabernacle, vice keel stepped, that I can raise and lower myself without the need to rent crane for $500.

A cinder block house on stilts with aux generator and wind and solar capabilities—or maybe an elevated home built from steel shipping containers could be an interesting approach. I could take a welding class at the local community college. Maybe I could construct it myself....

The issue might not be that we are living to close too the water but that we are not incorporating better designs and infrastructure to meet changing conditions.

[Sea Hunt Video]

I will side step the issue of climate change, Florida's unique geographical location, etc.

John, I am sure you have seen the latest NOAA/NHC advisory for Dorian. They have moved the path slightly more west with a probable landfall in the NC area this Friday morning. Hopefully, even with the change, you guys will still get the west ("clean") side of Dorian.

As I have said, if you want to take a drive down to Miami instead of staying in NC, there is "room at the inn". Also, an unexpected bonus; I have two (2) cases of Guinness that I need to "work on".

On a serious note, the people in the Bahamas, especially the Abacos, Marsh Harbor, Grand Bahama, Freeport, etc. are in desperate need of supplies. Here in Miami there are various depots set up to gather donations (canned food, water, clothes, bedding supplies, etc.) to ship to them. I assume there are similar governmental and NGOs set up in your neighborhood for the same purpose. There are a LOT of boaters and sailors in the Bahamian waters. The pictures show complete and total destruction of Grand Bahama, the Abacos, etc. I thought Hurricane Andrew was very bad (and it was), but it was nothing like Dorian. 48 hours of unrelenting 185 mph winds (with gusts over 200 mph), constant storm surge destruction, and flooding. Andrew was nothing like this, nothing.

Whatever you can contribute will be much needed and much appreciated. Thank you.

[John Stone]

We are really having fun now. Our third hurricane in four years. If the track forecasted by the NHC is accurate we should catch the west side of the eye wall at home in Swansboro. Then about two hours later the eye may pass over the boatyard and the Far Reach.

We are as ready as we can be. I checked on the boat today and the boatyard is reasonably well prepared. A large well built two story metal building is to the the east of the Far Reach about 20 yards away and should provide some protection from the expected N to E winds as long as the building remains intact. The boat is on the highest ground in the boatyard. There is no way to anchor the boat as it’s on matting over crushed gravel.

We have fuel for the generator. The vehicle fuel tanks are topped off. All the lawn/deck furniture and plants are inside the garage. The skiff is tied down. Sweet Pea is strapped down to the utility trailer in the back yard and it’s strapped down as well. The water jugs are topped off. We have extra food.

Looks like Dorian is back up to a Cat 3 tonight.

We expect peak winds after midnight tomorrow. There is not much else to be done except wait. Hopefully the power will remain on long enough to watch the Packer-Bears game Thursday evening.

If the weather is not too bad in the morning I’ll probably go check on the boat one more time....

It would be helpful if Dorian would track more east but that’s not looking likely.

Fingers crossed.

[Jim Walsh]

Good luck to you, your family, and Far Reach.....and to all threatened by this brute.

[jbenagh]

Fingers crossed.

mine too. Sounds like you prepared well. Good luck.

Jeff

[Chrisa006]

Good luck John!!