Roberto, start packing

[Capt Hook]

Or at least get your umbrella out.

Dorian may come calling.

[Sea Hunt Video]

Captain Hook:

Sorry for delay in responding. I spent the day closing most of the "H" shutters, prepping emergency supplies, buying water, fresh batteries, canned food, peanut butter, etc. Have all my important documents in my "go bag". Never hurts to be prepared and to do so early.

I am sure John would approve.

[Carl Thunberg]

What, no Guinness? I confess I'm disappointed in your preparation to overlook such an essential item.

[csoule13]

What, no Guinness? I confess I'm disappointed in your preparation to overlook such an essential item.

Nonsense, there's a fresh pack in the go bag that never leaves unless expired or consumed. C'mon now.

[Sea Hunt Video]

What, no Guinness? I confess I'm disappointed in your preparation to overlook such an essential item.

Nonsense, there's a fresh pack in the go bag that never leaves unless expired or consumed. C'mon now.

Carl: You have been a good friend for many years (since 2007). I am grateful for your concern. As luck would have it I layed in a supply of Guinness (2 cases) last week. I am hopeful it will be sufficient to last through this latest "weather event".

CSoule13: You are actually spot on. I have a small soft-sided cooler that will just fit 4 Guinness cans and plenty of ice. It will be right next to my go bag should we find ourselves at a Cat. 1 or 2. Above that, I will be bringing an entire case of Guinness with me.

[tjr818]

There is no hurricane forecast for Saint Louis, but a fella just can't be too careful. We will be thinking of you Roberto, Godspeed.

Provisions.jpg

[Sea Hunt Video]

Tim:

That is impressive. You are a gentleman and a scholar sir.

As has been well documented over the years, September is the most dangerous for "severe weather events" in the Atlantic and Caribbean. NHC/NOAA guidance currently suggests the system will skirt along the East coast will minimal strength. Hopefully, South Florida and the US East coast will get no more than a good soaking.

The weather system developing south and well east of the Windward islands is moving ominously towards "hurricane alley". It may well be the system we have to worry about more.

Fingers crossed that we all get through the next 5 weeks (30 Sep).

[Capt Hook]

Here is a synopsis of the 200PM EDT report from the National Hurricance Center:

1. Surface and radar data, along with satellite imagery, indicate that the low pressure area is just east of Roberto. The low is forecast to move generally toward Roberto tonight. If the current trend continues, a tropical depression is likely to form over Roberto's house. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over Roberto's house.

Chance of Roberto getting his a$$ wet ... high...90percent.

Stay tuned to your local weather stations.

[mgphl52]

Hmm... from what I just saw at NHC, it looks like invest 98L is trying to target JUST Roberto's house and invest 99L is the "back-up" to soak any part of Roberto's place that 98L may miss...

Better grab some more Guinness!!!

[Sea Hunt Video]

As if all of us in South Florida do not already have enough to worry about.

[Sea Hunt Video]

And the hits just keep on coming.

[Chrisa006]

We were going to move to florida and while researching it read a book about the downside. The biggest you don’t think about is worrying for the whole storm season. Even though you rarely get hit the stress of being ready to leave all season sucks. We changed our plans.

[Sea Hunt Video]

Chris:

I know exactly what you mean. I moved to Florida in the mid to late 60s. I was young and stupid and thought only of the ocean, diving and girls (not in that order of course )

Not all of Florida is a hurricane magnet. South Florida yes; Panhandle yes. Other areas like West Palm, Daytona areas are rarely impacted by hurricanes. Admittedly, from 01 July to 01 Nov it is a crap shoot. But the good news is that in Dec and Jan when your "Northern friends" call to ask if they can visit for just a few days in mid winter you get to tell them ........... (well, whatever you want, from "sure" to "no vacancy").

It does look like this is going to be a bad season this year.

[Capt Hook]

Roberto, when you see Dorian tell him to hang a right and stay out of the Gulf.

[Sea Hunt Video]

This is the current advisory from NOAA/NHC. As I said, NOAA/NHC is very good at projecting storm path. Dorian is heading straight for Southeast Florida. NOAA/NHC is not very good yet at projecting storm strength along the storm path. As of now, they are suggesting probable tropical storm force winds (TS). I am confident their guidance will change this soon to Cat. 1 or even Cat. 2 hurricane status. Dorian is threading the needle in between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. No wind sheer; no mountains. Once past Hispaniola, if it does thread needle, it is nothing but open seas (no mountains; no land) and very warm waters (92+ F).

Dorian has the potential to be a very, very bad "wind event" for Southeast Florida.