Roberto, wake up

[Capt Hook]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

[Sea Hunt Video]

Captain Hook:

Ye of so little faith.

I have already rechecked my "go bag" (personal and legal documents) and restocked with fresh batteries, energy bars, water bottles (3), "personal protection" with fresh ammo, etc.

My truck gas tank is full as of early am today. It will be topped off every other day.

I have secured additional tie down straps for S/V Bali Ha'i and closed and locked down most, not all, "H" shutters.

Most importantly, I have layed in a supply of Guinness (2 cases)

I have been "awake" and watching this system for the past several days. What people sometimes forget is that a "small" disturbance with 20 knot winds can develop into a full blown Cat 2-3 "H" event in a matter of 2-3 days or less. This is especially true in South Florida because the water is scary hot. I was diving in the Keys last week and when I rolled in to the water it felt like bath water - no joke; bath water. It's going to be a long, hot 3 months ahead.

[John Stone]

Egads it’s too early for this kind of drama. I guess I should just glad I made it back in June without any trouble.

Roberto, though we are a ways from you, if you ever need a place to evacuate to you’re always welcome here. And we drink Guinness. Just saying.

[Capt Hook]

So it's graduated to a Depression.

It had 10% chance of development yesterday, 30% this morning and now it's up to 60%.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

[Sea Hunt Video]

Egads it’s too early for this kind of drama. I guess I should just glad I made it back in June without any trouble.

Oh, Johnny It looks like this TD may be coming your way. During its sojourn along the coast it will be soaking up some very warm water. That is a bad thing, very bad.

As the NHC/NOAA folks have been showing us for the past several years they have gotten very good at projecting storm path. However, they are still in the embryonic stages of accurately projecting storm strength. Frankly, there are probably too many variables to ever get really good.

John, you may want to at least examine your storm supplies, check on dock lines, etc. If I recall correctly you are now at a different dock/marina than last year when Florence visited for a few days.

[John Stone]

Egads it’s too early for this kind of drama. I guess I should just glad I made it back in June without any trouble.

Oh, Johnny It looks like this TD may be coming your way. During its sojourn along the coast it will be soaking up some very warm water. That is a bad thing, very bad.

As the NHC/NOAA folks have been showing us for the past several years they have gotten very good at projecting storm path. However, they are still in the embryonic stages of accurately projecting storm strength. Frankly, there are probably too many variables to ever get really good.

John, you may want to at least examine your storm supplies, check on dock lines, etc. If I recall correctly you are now at a different dock/marina than last year when Florence visited for a few days.

For the love of Mary!

Roberto, the FR is back in the same marina, but a different slip. We are waiting for a spot in a small boatyard to haul out for the year. Can’t come soon enough.

Guess we will have to see what this storm will bring.

[Sea Hunt Video]

John:

My sense of concern for hurricanes goes back to 24 August 1992. I moved to Miami circa 1965. From then until 1992 I had no concern about hurricanes. If I was home we used to throw hurricane parties - beer and girls.

Prior to Sunday, 23 August 1992, there was little if any urgency to a storm "way out in the Atlantic" that was moving generally toward Florida. Sunday night, 23 August my neighbors and I began hearing reports about this "storm" moving closer to Florida but it was projected to make landfall at the Miami-Dade/Broward County line - 50 miles north of us. No worries. Time to party BBQ, beer, pool shenanigans, etc. At about 1900 hours someone heard a radio broadcast that said this "storm" had made a 1 degree turn to the south and was now heading directly for Miami-Dade County. We scrambled to try to get bottled water, ice, batteries, etc. ALL GONE We had no hurricane shutters; no one in our neighborhood had any shutters. About 2300 hours electric went dead. I had very few batteries for a radio and a few for a flashlight. I braced for the worst when a meteorologist (Brian Norcross) said this "storm" was now at Cat. 5 and strengthening Holy s#*t

Hurricane Andrew changed the hurricane party atmosphere permanently for me. I no longer make jokes about hurricanes. I urge friends to take it seriously.

My home got the north wall of Andrew. As I am sure you know that is the most dangerous part of a hurricane. Of course, it is not always the "north wall". It depends on the direction/path of the storm. Andrew moved East to West so the "north wall" was the most dangerous. NHC documented sustained winds in excess of 160 mph. The wind meter blew off the tower at NHC (then at the Univ. of Miami) so no one knows for sure how much above. I know for sure it was way above 160 mph. There were several documented tornadoes that mushroomed from Andrew. Several people in my neighborhood including 2 children died in the storm.

My home blew away. 85-90% of roof completely gone, including trusses, etc.. All exterior doors and winds completely blown away. Sliding glass doors broke into chards and flew around like bullets. I braced against a 2nd bathroom door for 5-6 hours in an effort to try to stay out of wind, glass, etc. I could feel the wind pressure trying to push open the door.

I do not exaggerate when i say my home (and all the homes in my neighborhood) looked like a bomb had exploded inside the house. In the morning of Monday, 24 August 1992, after Andrew passed, my home was quite literally nothing more than four (4) exterior walls, essentially no roof and nothing inside. All blown away. For reasons not here relevant it took my two (2) long years to rebuild. I rebuilt to standards well above code at the time with large reinforcing truss straps, heavy tiles, etc. I installed thick accordion hurricane shutters everywhere. We had no shutters for Andrew.

I have also become much more knowledgeable about and aware of NHC/NOAA predictions, storm path, strength, etc. Fortunately, while we have had several hurricanes cross over South Florida since 1992 none have been catastrophic storms like Andrew.

So when I see a storm like the one off South Florida tonight and I KNOW from experience how easy it is to go from a TD to a TS to an H, I act on the side of caution. It's a lot easier to unlock and open hurricane shutters than it is to try to secure them during a TS or worse. It is also easy to consume the Guinness after the storm has passed than trying to run around town looking for Guinness to survive after the storm.

As stated elsewhere, the NHC/NOAA has become very good at projecting storm path. They still have a long way to go in accurately projecting storm strength along the path continuum. Hopefully, this depression does as projected - skirts the coast of Florida, meanders up the East Coast staying as a depression and then heads out into the Atlantic.

As NHC/NOAA says, "All marine interests should monitor and stay tuned for further developments"

[Sea Hunt Video]

Roberto, though we are a ways from you, if you ever need a place to evacuate to you’re always welcome here. And we drink Guinness. Just saying.

John:

Thanks very much. That is very kind. We are not that far separated. The same goes for you and family. All I ask is that you give me advance notice so I can lay in an adequate supply of Guinness.

As you know, TD 3 has now dissipated. I have stood down from "DefCon 3". It was a good trial run. All works well (shutters, cooler, ice maker, supply bin for Guinness, etc.)