Erratic hurricane paths

[mgphl52]

The worst is over for us already (see the goofy black splotch),
well, except for a *lot* of debris to clean up...

20181010-02.JPG

I'll post some video later today.

Sure hope boaters to east have weathered this beast well!

[mgphl52]

Here's a bunch of (probably boring...) videos I took over the last few days...
I must have maxed out my "google drive" upload for the day since the latest ones aren't showing up.

20181009 124510
20181009 171918
20181009 172150
20181010 072006
20181010 100009
20181010 135227

[John Stone]

I bet you are going to have “a lot of shit to clean up.” Hahahaha. Hilarious. I know the feeling. We are still cleaning it up here in NC. Glad you, and your boats, came through OK.

[Sea Hunt Video]

Hello Mike:

Great news Looks like S/V Kayla and others made it through without any significant damage.

Do you have electricity or did you loose electricity and operating off generator

Last year, during Hurricane Irma, my neighborhood lost electric for 7-8 days but a close friend who owns a dive shop in Key Largo and was MUCH closer to Irma did not even have his lights flicker He never lost electric. Mother Nature is a strange girl

[tjr818]

Hurricane Michael is now projected to be a major hurricane (winds in excess of 110 mph) and will make landfall along the Florida Panhandle during the day on Wednesday, 10 October...The waters in that area are very, very warm right now...These waters could easily fuel Hurricane Michael into a Cat. 4 (130-156) or Cat. 5 (157 - ??) hurricane.

Roberto,
Your experience is showing, great forecasting.

[mgphl52]

Do you have electricity or did you loose electricity and operating off generator

I actually continued working from home all day... there was a period where the power flickered (took hits on my modem & router) so I went to the docks to take some extra video.
Other than that we were quite safe since Jim Cantore was well east of us!

[Sea Hunt Video]

Hurricane Michael is now projected to be a major hurricane (winds in excess of 110 mph) and will make landfall along the Florida Panhandle during the day on Wednesday, 10 October...The waters in that area are very, very warm right now...These waters could easily fuel Hurricane Michael into a Cat. 4 (130-156) or Cat. 5 (157 - ??) hurricane.

Roberto,
Your experience is showing, great forecasting.

Tim:

I think all I was doing was briefly summarizing what NHC/NOAA was forecasting on their website. Hurricane Michael once again confirms that NHC is very good a projecting path and speed of a hurricane; however, they are still struggling to accurately project hurricane strength along the path. Michael went from basically an insignificant depression to a strong Cat. 4 hurricane in 4 days. Pretty remarkable

Mike:

Is there any update on "where is Jim Cantore?"

[Sea Hunt Video]

Hurricane Michael is no longer tracked on the NOAA/NHC website. He has dissipated in the Atlantic.

Yesterday and today both national and local TV networks have been showing ground video, aerial and drone video, etc., of the devastation in the Panhandle area of Florida, including Mexico Beach (landfall ground zero), Panama City, etc. The devastation and destruction shown on these videos reminds me of what happened in South Florida on 24 August 1992 at 0405 hours when Hurricane Andrew made landfall at Homestead AFB in a way that no hurricane since Andrew has done.

Andrew was a Cat. 5+ hurricane with winds well in excess of 165 mph. It moved fast and did not have a lot of rain associated with it. Streets were mostly dry by 1000 hours that Monday morning. In my neighborhood it looked like a series of bombs had been dropped. Most homes were either mostly or totally destroyed or collapsed. There was evidence of tornadoes spawned by Andrew on the "dirty side" of the storm. Our neighborhood got the "north wall" of an East to West hurricane - the dirty side. It last about 7 hours and felt like 12.

From what I have seen from the videos of Michael’s destruction it is very, very similar (eerily so) to that of Andrew. Not surprising - very strong Cat. 4 winds, not much rain, high storm surge. For most South Florida residents who decided to rebuild it took a year or more and a lot of patience. For reasons not here relevant it took me two years to rebuild. I state all of the above as a preface to the following observations and request.

The people hardest hit by Hurricane Michael are now walking around in a daze - no food, no water, no clothes, no home, no valuables - NOTHING. I know because that was me and thousands of others in August 1992. Twenty-six years ago federal and state government’s did not have the foresight to preposition food, water, medical supplies, blankets, cots, electrical company trucks, etc. It was more than two (2) weeks before any help got to any of us. It felt like two months.

While things are fortunately very different today, FEMA and governmental agencies only do so much. It then requires the efforts of charitable organizations to step in, fill in gaps, and provide long-term assistance. In 1992 we fended for ourselves. I never saw a FEMA rep nor a Red Cross volunteer. Neighbors with nothing left helping neighbors with nothing left !!

There are several organizations on the ground in the Panhandle as you read this post. I would respectfully ask you to consider making a donation to a charitable organization to help the citizens in the Panhandle region of Florida. From what I have learned over the years more than anything else the charities need money to be able to buy stuff and to resupply their shelves and warehouses. They sadly have a lot of experience in knowing what they need to distribute to those devastated by a hurricane. They just need the money to buy what they need. The destruction in the Panhandle will require a long term rebuilding effort. Whatever you can contribute.

I do urge caution in donating to charitable organizations. Catastrophic events like Hurricane Michael bring out the best in most of us. Sadly, they also bring out the worst in a few who see it as an opportunity to take advantage of the kindness of strangers. Before making a donation to any charity check to make sure it is legitimate. There are several organizations that monitor charities and provide guidance on ones that are legitimate and ones that are self-serving.

This is one such website:

https://www.charitynavigator.org/

Thank you for taking the time to read this post.

[mgphl52]

After looking at photos & videos from PCB, I know we really got very f'ing lucky here!
Here's the last two videos from Wednesday.
20181010 172232
20181010 182203

It's going to be a damn long time before PCB to Mexico Beach get back some sort of normal...

[mgphl52]

... and here we go, yet again...

Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

[Sea Hunt Video]

Mike, John and all:

The season is far from over (30 November) but we have not seen a NOAA/NHC chart like this in a long time

[mgphl52]

Mike, John and all:

The season is far from over (30 November) but we have not seen a NOAA/NHC chart like this in a long time

That's a fact! There was still a tiny blob in the 1400 posting but it was predicted to go away...
Now... if only those dang Red Sox would quit beating up on the favorite team of my sister-in-law...

[Sea Hunt Video]

Mike:

My apologies for not responding sooner to your post. I did not want to jinx the Red Sox.

My beloved Boston Red Sox are the ALCS Champions and are going to World Series

All is right with the world

Oh, and for those interested, no cyclonic activity expected in the Atlantic for the next few days,

[mgphl52]

Oh no! Roberto, you may have just jinxed the world series chances...

The MLB teams that care about are:

• the Atlanta Boo Boos - can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory on any given day...

• Chicago Cubs - "cursed" for many years but finally won one more time...

• Houston "Dis-Astros" - see comment above about the the Braves... but they did win a world series in far less years than it took Atlanta!

and just to stir the pot...

• whoever is playing against that "other" team from beantown...
  especially since they beat my sister's-in-law favorite team

I'm just damn glad to be BS'ing about baseball and not fretting about yet another beast from the weather!