Erratic hurricane paths

[mgphl52]

So much for setting dock lines for high water... will have to move KAYLA and a few others this afternoon...

[mgphl52]

GRRRRRRRR... just heard the beast may be cat-4 as it aims directly at KAYLA...
will update tomorrow as I see how things "hopefully" change for the better.

[Sea Hunt Video]

Mike:

On the European model (pretty accurate in Gulf area) it projects the internal wall pressure at about 971 millibars when it makes landfall. It is currently about 986 mb. 971 is not bad; not good but not Cat. 4 or Cat. 5, although strong Cat. 3. However, as mentioned in an earlier post, the area Michael is heading into is very, very warm water; it could strengthen in a matter of hours. NOAA/NHC is still not good at projecting wind speed.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =mslpaNorm

Hurricane Andrew, 24 August 1992, had an internal barometric wall pressure of 922 mb. It was above 160 mph sustained winds as it passed over my home. I say "above 160" because no one really knows for sure; all of the wind meters blew off the NHC tower at UM at 162 mph

If Michael stays at around 970-975 (or higher) it will be bad but not catastrophic.

Also, if Michael remains on current course and speed it will make landfall early afternoon on Wednesday. Daylight Much better to deal with "issues" in daylight than at night. Trust me

Finally, since it is named "Michael" it may well have concern for you and spare S/V Kayla.

I am confident I speak for all on this board when I say you are, and will remain, in our thoughts.

[John Stone]

I’m here to tell ya, it’s not all about wind speed. Florence hit eastern NC as a Strong Cat 1. She was huge in diameter and only moving at 2-3mph. Huge surge—10-13’ which lasted through multiple tide cycles. I have been through a lot of hurricanes as I have listed on the coast in Florida or NC for 45 years. I have never seen the damage done over such a wide area like I have from Florence.

Yes, wind speed is important as Roberto lived to tell but the danger a hurricane poses is a composite of factors of which wind is but one. Be careful. High ground is super important.

I submitted an article proposal to BoatUS Magazine. They accepted and have graciously given us 1500-2000 words to tell our story. But, it won’t be published till next summer. The CD forum has a lot of our story already under the Hurricane Florence thread.

There is nothing new to learn other than what has been relearned many many times. Prepare your property. Haul your boat if you can. If not, see the Florence thread. Take care of your family. Think twice before you evacuate. It will be hell hard to get back home with flooded roads and downed trees. Be careful. Good luck. Fingers crossed.

[mgphl52]

Roberto & John,

Many thanks for your thoughts, concern and info.
At this time I'm hoping my "nemesis" will crank up its forward progress and come ashore quickly.

Back in 1995 I had to bug out for Opal since my daughter was only 6 months old and I felt sure we would loose power....
Well, I was right and we stayed in Jacksonville FL with family friends for nearly a week!
When we left, I drove east on hwy 20 til nearly Tallahassee FL - every north/south rode we crossed had nothing but brake lights to the north and head lights to the south!
When we drove back home, a large section of hwy 20 that we had left on was washed out!
Fortunately I took I-10 back home.

Anyway, we decided (good or bad) to stay at the docks and rig lines for the surge.
Will find out after Wednesday if that was smart or lazy... If I had taken KAYLA out to anchor I'd had to swim back...

Sure hope all others in the area prepared and come thru this unscathed!

[Sea Hunt Video]

John S.:

I agree with all in your post especially the parts about taking care of family (except mothers-in-law ) and thinking twice about evacuation.

From what I have learned over the years, hurricanes are either primarily a wind event (Hurricane Andrew) or primarily a rain event (Hurricanes Harvey and Florence) or a combination of both (Camille).

Assuming (yes I know the saying ) NHC/NOAA is correct in projecting consistent speed of about 12 mph moving north, this will be, hopefully, primarily a wind event. There will be a lot of rain (there always is) but Michael will not sit over Tallahassee or Niceville or Panama City for days like Florence did. Michael is projected to move quickly to the NE (SC, NC, Va., etc.).

The issue the Panhandle will have is storm surge. The storm is moving north with a counterclockwise rotation. The "dirty side" of Michael will be on the east side of storm and adjacent to the west coast of Florida. Michael will be using its considerable Cat. 2 or 3 wind strength to push a lot of the Gulf waters into the Tallahassee and Panama City area. Storm surge is generally more deadly than wind speed.

Mike, I forgot to mention one important detail in hurricane prep. Hopefully, you still have time. Once you have prepped S/V Kayla and your house and organized water and food rations for your family for 7-10 days, it is then time to make every reasonable effort to lay in supply of beer, preferably Guinness. During last year's hurricane (Irma) I rationed myself 2 Guinness per day for 8 days.

[mgphl52]

Mike, I forgot to mention one important detail in hurricane prep. Hopefully, you still have time. Once you have prepped S/V Kayla and your house and organized water and food rations for your family for 7-10 days, it is then time to make every reasonable effort to lay in supply of beer, preferably Guinness. During last year's hurricane (Irma) I rationed myself 2 Guinness per day for 8 days.

Roberto,
Thanks for your thoughts and recommendations... however, when not sailing or riding my Harleys, I drink red wine.
When sailing, Miller Lite is the constant supply.
Also, I have *never* had a dark & stormy (I suspect that might change at the annual meeting?).

We have KAYLA, a Cape Dory weekender, a Catalina 22 and Tranquil at the dock ready for a 5~7 foot rise (well, except for Tranquil ).

As with all of these beasts, time will tell if we did good or screwed the pooch...
Glad you and your CD25D are out of harms way!

[Capt Hook]

Mike,

The cone keeps creeping to the east and you're on the "good" side.

You're gonna be OK.

Send us some pix Thursday morning and show us how well you fared..

[Sea Hunt Video]

Mike:

I sent you a PM

[mgphl52]

Thanks, Roberto! Just sent you a reply...

[Sea Hunt Video]

As of 0800 hrs, Michael is now a Cat. 4 hurricane with sustained 145 mph winds and internal wall pressure of 933 mb. Michael still has time to strengthen even further.

Sadly, for the Panhandle area of Florida this will be a devastating hurricane, one of the strongest ever in Florida.

Mike and all, you are in our thoughts.

[Jim Walsh]

Good luck folks. Be safe. Things can be replaced, people cannot.

[John Stone]

It looks very bad. Michael looks certain to be a catastrophic hurricane. Hopefully she will not slow down but rapidly move over land and become disorganized. Be careful out there. Good luck.

[mgphl52]

The bad news is the beast is now cat-4 and may go to cat-5...
the *good* news is that Jim Cantore is in Port St Joe...
70+ miles east of Niceville.
Sure hope the folks over there come thru safely.

[mgphl52]

Getting lots of rain but the winds are not very bad... yet... well, at least in Niceville.

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