I have been watching this one, not so much as to prepare but to find out what it will finally do. I looked at the pilot charts and there is nothing to suggest that a storm should behave in this manner. It is like watching a log drift upstream. Storms tha don't follow the traditional routes can create a lot of problems in route planning. I was stuck in NS a couple of years ago while I waited for a storm that did a circular route before it finally moved off. This sort of behavior is un nerving at best, Steve.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.s ... e#contents
Erratic hurricane paths
Moderator: Jim Walsh
-
Steve Laume
- Posts: 4127
- Joined: Feb 13th, '05, 20:40
- Location: Raven1984 Cape Dory 30C Hull #309Noank, CT
- Contact:
Re: Erratic hurricane paths
Well... I for one would be quite happy to see the potential "Michael" go the opposite way.
Right now the forecast puts a bull's eye on the Emerald Coast...
Right now the forecast puts a bull's eye on the Emerald Coast...
-michael & Toni CDSOA #789
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
-
Sea Hunt Video
- Posts: 2561
- Joined: May 4th, '11, 19:03
- Location: Former caretaker S/V Bali Ha'i 1982 CD 25D; Hull 69 and S/V Tadpole Typhoon Week
Re: Erratic hurricane paths
Mike:
As you know NOAA/NHC has become very good at projecting storm path. They are still working on trying to better predict storm strength at any point along the path.
As of 2000 hours tonight, NOAA/NHC projects this storm to pass over the Panhandle area around Wednesday, 10 October as a tropical storm. This could easily be upgraded to hurricane strength during the next 2-3 days.
As you know NOAA/NHC has become very good at projecting storm path. They are still working on trying to better predict storm strength at any point along the path.
As of 2000 hours tonight, NOAA/NHC projects this storm to pass over the Panhandle area around Wednesday, 10 October as a tropical storm. This could easily be upgraded to hurricane strength during the next 2-3 days.
Fair winds,
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Re: Erratic hurricane paths
Roberto,
Yep... And the latest forecast/prediction/hocus-pocus puts us in the center of the cone, but only as a TS...
However, from past experience of living in Florida (1952~1982 & 1995~present) I also know *anything* can happen...
Since I rode my bike today, I plan to go sailing tomorrow and will decide how much to prep come Monday's forecast.
Yep... And the latest forecast/prediction/hocus-pocus puts us in the center of the cone, but only as a TS...
However, from past experience of living in Florida (1952~1982 & 1995~present) I also know *anything* can happen...
Since I rode my bike today, I plan to go sailing tomorrow and will decide how much to prep come Monday's forecast.
-michael & Toni CDSOA #789
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
Re: Erratic hurricane paths
Mike,
Kumbaya and I are “the opposite way” in Nawlins.
Don’t wish you ill but we don’t want Michael.
See you in Fairhope next month and you can tell me all about how it was no big deal.
Cloyd
Kumbaya and I are “the opposite way” in Nawlins.
Don’t wish you ill but we don’t want Michael.
See you in Fairhope next month and you can tell me all about how it was no big deal.
Cloyd
Capt Hook
s/v Kumbaya
Cape Dory 31, Hull No. 73
New Orleans, LA
s/v Kumbaya
Cape Dory 31, Hull No. 73
New Orleans, LA
Re: Erratic hurricane paths
No wishes for the beast to head west either! By "the opposite way" I meant see it go SOUTH instead of North.
Latest forecast has Cat-1 with KAYLA in the center of the cone... Only time will tell.
Will probably just remove the main today instead of sailing.
Latest forecast has Cat-1 with KAYLA in the center of the cone... Only time will tell.
Will probably just remove the main today instead of sailing.
-michael & Toni CDSOA #789
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
-
John Stone
- Posts: 3623
- Joined: Oct 6th, '08, 07:30
- Location: S/V Far Reach: CD 36 #61 www.farreachvoayges.net www.farreachvoyages.com
Re: Erratic hurricane paths
After 50 years of sailing, I am still learning about marine weather. Fascinating stuff. My go to products are surface analysis maps. http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtmlSteve Laume wrote:I have been watching this one, not so much as to prepare but to find out what it will finally do. I looked at the pilot charts and there is nothing to suggest that a storm should behave in this manner. It is like watching a log drift upstream. Storms tha don't follow the traditional routes can create a lot of problems in route planning. I was stuck in NS a couple of years ago while I waited for a storm that did a circular route before it finally moved off. This sort of behavior is un nerving at best, Steve.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.s ... e#contents
I think hurricanes are primarily steered by high and low pressure areas, which are constantly moving. I think water temp and high level winds greatly influence the ability for them to grow or collapse through wind sheer. Obviously it’s more complicated than that but these things seem to support the reality that ultimately develops.
I’ll sure be happy when November arrives. Sept was not fun.
Last edited by John Stone on Oct 7th, '18, 12:20, edited 1 time in total.
-
Sea Hunt Video
- Posts: 2561
- Joined: May 4th, '11, 19:03
- Location: Former caretaker S/V Bali Ha'i 1982 CD 25D; Hull 69 and S/V Tadpole Typhoon Week
Re: Erratic hurricane paths
The latest NOAA/NHC advisory on TS Michael:
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Fair winds,
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Re: Erratic hurricane paths
Just got back up the hill from removing the main and adjusting line for 6~7 foot rise only to see the TD become TS...
Time to go for ride before the rains arrive.
The good news is having today to prep our boats for the beast...
Well, at least for those like me that are still working full-time.
Time to go for ride before the rains arrive.
The good news is having today to prep our boats for the beast...
Well, at least for those like me that are still working full-time.
-michael & Toni CDSOA #789
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
Re: Erratic hurricane paths
Mike,
The cone keeps shifting to the east. Today it cleared the LA, MS and AL coasts. Give it another day or two and you’ll be in the clear.
The cone keeps shifting to the east. Today it cleared the LA, MS and AL coasts. Give it another day or two and you’ll be in the clear.
Capt Hook
s/v Kumbaya
Cape Dory 31, Hull No. 73
New Orleans, LA
s/v Kumbaya
Cape Dory 31, Hull No. 73
New Orleans, LA
Re: Erratic hurricane paths
Yep... that's what I'm hoping for too. Sometimes being well prepared helps move those beasts the other way???
-michael & Toni CDSOA #789
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
-
John Stone
- Posts: 3623
- Joined: Oct 6th, '08, 07:30
- Location: S/V Far Reach: CD 36 #61 www.farreachvoayges.net www.farreachvoyages.com
Re: Erratic hurricane paths
That didn’t work in NC. But I can assure you that being prepared produces a far better outcome than not being prepared.mgphl52 wrote:Sometimes being well prepared helps move those beasts the other way???
-
Sea Hunt Video
- Posts: 2561
- Joined: May 4th, '11, 19:03
- Location: Former caretaker S/V Bali Ha'i 1982 CD 25D; Hull 69 and S/V Tadpole Typhoon Week
Re: Erratic hurricane paths
I for one would appreciate you guys laying off the effort to push TS/H Michael more and more easterly. You keep doing that and it could wind up crossing over Southeast Florida west to east. It would not be the first TS/H to do so, nor as you can see from TS/H Leslie are there any prohibitions against TS/H Michael doing one or more "loopi-loops" (scientific and meteorological term) while in the Gulf.
30 November cannot come soon enough
30 November cannot come soon enough
Fair winds,
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Re: Erratic hurricane paths
That may be true... but I've yet to meet a hurricane than can read a calendar!Sea Hunt Video wrote:30 November cannot come soon enough
-michael & Toni CDSOA #789
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
s/v KAYLA CD28 #318
2012 FLSTC Heritage Classic
Niceville FL
+30° 30' 24.60", -86° 26' 32.10"
"Just because it worked, doesn't mean it works." -me
No shirt + No shorts = No problem!
-
Sea Hunt Video
- Posts: 2561
- Joined: May 4th, '11, 19:03
- Location: Former caretaker S/V Bali Ha'i 1982 CD 25D; Hull 69 and S/V Tadpole Typhoon Week
Re: Erratic hurricane paths
Hurricane Michael is now projected to be a major hurricane (winds in excess of 110 mph) and will make landfall along the Florida Panhandle during the day on Wednesday, 10 October.
The waters in that area are very, very warm right now.
https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof_tmap.html
These waters could easily fuel Hurricane Michael into a Cat. 4 (130-156) or Cat. 5 (157 - ??) hurricane.
The waters in that area are very, very warm right now.
https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof_tmap.html
These waters could easily fuel Hurricane Michael into a Cat. 4 (130-156) or Cat. 5 (157 - ??) hurricane.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Fair winds,
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil