Hurricane Florence
Moderator: Jim Walsh
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Hurricane Florence
John S. and all others with interests along the SC, NC, Va. coast, Florence may soon be a significant "wind event". She has been flopping around the Atlantic for days (below is the 34 advisory issued at 1700 hours today ). According to NHC she has apparently finally gotten her act together and knows where she wants to go. There is, unfortunately, a blocking high off the East Coast which may force Florence onshore along the mid-Atlantic states as a major (Cat. 3 or Cat. 4) hurricane next week.
Sadly, South Florida has yet another "tropical system" to contend with once it gets into the Caribbean Sea, especially if winds push it north.
Once again I lament my annual decision to remain in South Florida in the face of yet another high number hurricane season. Some great mind (perhaps Einstein) once said "insanity is doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result". I keep thinking every year that this will be a "quiet year". It never happens and I am again disappointed and disillusioned.
Sadly, South Florida has yet another "tropical system" to contend with once it gets into the Caribbean Sea, especially if winds push it north.
Once again I lament my annual decision to remain in South Florida in the face of yet another high number hurricane season. Some great mind (perhaps Einstein) once said "insanity is doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result". I keep thinking every year that this will be a "quiet year". It never happens and I am again disappointed and disillusioned.
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Last edited by Sea Hunt Video on Sep 11th, '18, 12:44, edited 1 time in total.
Fair winds,
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
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Re: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Florence
Roberto, Copy all. We have been watching Florence. Still early but, sadly, the European models have proven to be pretty accurate. Here is the link to the latest European model for Florence. It depicts a direct hit where we live.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0
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Re: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Florence
I just ran the model and it’s now a little south of us. But we will know more in a couple days.
Re: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Florence
The Governor of North Carolina has declared a state of emergency. Time to ensure all are prepared.
Jim Walsh
Ex Vice Commodore
Ex Captain-Northeast Fleet
CD31 ORION
The currency of life is not money, it's time
Ex Vice Commodore
Ex Captain-Northeast Fleet
CD31 ORION
The currency of life is not money, it's time
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Re: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Florence
Over the past 24 hrs, TS Florence has not moved 50 miles. That is NOT GOOD for Florida. The more Florence stays over warm water and does not move (she is now at 9 mph W) the greater the chance a blocking high will send her towards Florida
Fair winds,
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
- Sea Hunt Video
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Re: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Florence
Florence is now moving at less than 5 mph west. Not good; too much time to become a Cat. 4 or Cat. 5. Interests from the Georgia/Florida border to Virginia should be making preps.
Remember when just a few short days ago Florence was projected to pass EAST of Bermuda. Ha
This is one ugly picture:
Remember when just a few short days ago Florence was projected to pass EAST of Bermuda. Ha
This is one ugly picture:
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Fair winds,
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
- Sea Hunt Video
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Re: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Florence
This is the latest projection for Hurricane Florence. NHC is projecting landfall as a Cat. 4 storm with winds of 130-155 mph Boaters from NE Georgia north (SC, NC, Va., Del, Md, etc.) should be watching and making preps for our boats.
The current projection of NHC shows Florence speeding up as it approaches the Eastern coast and then, for reasons I have yet to learn, slows down just before it makes landfall. This means, if it holds, that SC and NC will feel the effects of a Cat. 4 storm for a long period of time beginning Thursday pm. NOT GOOD
Coincidentally, one of my cousins is currently stationed on Guam. They are getting ready to greet a Cat. 4 typhoon beginning tomorrow afternoon. The eye is projected to pass over Rota. Guam will get very high winds and heavy rains.
The current projection of NHC shows Florence speeding up as it approaches the Eastern coast and then, for reasons I have yet to learn, slows down just before it makes landfall. This means, if it holds, that SC and NC will feel the effects of a Cat. 4 storm for a long period of time beginning Thursday pm. NOT GOOD
Coincidentally, one of my cousins is currently stationed on Guam. They are getting ready to greet a Cat. 4 typhoon beginning tomorrow afternoon. The eye is projected to pass over Rota. Guam will get very high winds and heavy rains.
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Fair winds,
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Re: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Florence
Making landfall as a Caegory 4, yikes!
Be safe everyone. For those in the path just bear in mind that people are irreplaceable, none of our "things" are worth risking your life.
Be safe everyone. For those in the path just bear in mind that people are irreplaceable, none of our "things" are worth risking your life.
Jim Walsh
Ex Vice Commodore
Ex Captain-Northeast Fleet
CD31 ORION
The currency of life is not money, it's time
Ex Vice Commodore
Ex Captain-Northeast Fleet
CD31 ORION
The currency of life is not money, it's time
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Re: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Florence
Well, this is certainly not looking good for our area. The models diverge some. NHC is staying in the middle. Wilmington still seems to be the projected landfall. Some discussion about Florence stalling upon landfall which is a bad development.
We are 50 nm NE of Wilmington and 4.5 nm from the coast. About half the distance to the coast is estuary.
The boat is 70 NE from Wilmington on the Neuse River. We have completed of our hurricane preparations. We stripped the boat—dinghy, sails. Flipped her around in her berth, which is a 26’ wide catamaran slip. I go back today to double dock lines. Extreme surge is forecasted for the Neuse surge. Anything from 6’ to 15’ depending on the source.
Not much else we can do. Fingers cross we get some luck.
We are 50 nm NE of Wilmington and 4.5 nm from the coast. About half the distance to the coast is estuary.
The boat is 70 NE from Wilmington on the Neuse River. We have completed of our hurricane preparations. We stripped the boat—dinghy, sails. Flipped her around in her berth, which is a 26’ wide catamaran slip. I go back today to double dock lines. Extreme surge is forecasted for the Neuse surge. Anything from 6’ to 15’ depending on the source.
Not much else we can do. Fingers cross we get some luck.
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Re: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Florence
John S. and all other Cape Dorians in the path of Hurricane Flornence:
You will be in our thoughts for the next many days and weeks.
Unfortunately, it looks like Florence is projected to make landfall very close to Wilmington. You may get the eye of the hurricane or the "NE wall" of Florence. That will be the "dirty side" of the hurricane and will have the most destructive power. While tornadoes can form anywhere, the dirty side is historically high on the list.
As the veteran of several hurricanes I offer some thoughts which I am confident you already know:
1. I urge you to consider evacuation. I know you are a Marine and that grates the wrong way. Understood. Retreat is NOT defeat. Live to fight another day. If Florence does as projected it may well make landfall as a Cat. 5 hurricane with sustained winds in excess of 150 mph. Very few structures will survive that level of sustained attack for hours. As you noted, Florence is projected to stall at or near the coast. Very bad.
2. If you stay, make sure you lay in a supply of:
Water - enough for at least 2 weeks for each person; you will drink much more water than you normally do.
CASH - possibly (probably) no electricity for weeks; no banks; no ATMS, CASH IS KING Get small bills and much more than you think you will need
Vehicle gas tank full - gas pumps will not be working for days or weeks.
Batteries, radio, flashlights
Keep all cell phones on battery charger until electricity goes out.
If anyone in family takes meds, make sure you get an extra refill NOW because pharmacies will not be open, will not have electricity and will not have medical records for prescription refills.
Collect all important legal documents, insurance documents, etc. and make sure they are in a safe, dry place, preferably in your "go bag". Each person should have an individual "go bag".
Turn OFF at circuit breakers all non-essential electrical systems
Wash all clothes, etc. just before storm so that you start with a clean slate. Possibly no electricity for weeks; no washer/dryer.
Provide contact information, etc. to someone you know who is not in the path of Florence.
Some of the above may not apply if you have a sufficiently large generator with a sufficient supply of generator fuel.
Just some thoughts from a hurricane survivor, including Hurricane Andrew (24 August 1992; Cat. 5, sustained 160+mph winds). My house blew away. Andrew created this beautiful 10' square sky window in the bedroom - no roof but you could see the stars every night while sitting on the salt water soaked bed. What fun
I will end with this thought. If I had known just before 24 August 1992 what I know now, I would have done what I could to protect my home and property and then loaded up the truck with everything I could and "bugged out". I would have driven as far north as possible to get out of the path of Andrew. I have been in some scary s**t in my life; Andrew was at or near the top. Once it hits there is nothing you can do. You just sit for several hours hoping it will end soon. Three (3) people died (including 2 children) in my neighborhood when second floor collapsed onto the first floor. Many others died when their homes blew away.
In your situation, I would think driving west towards the Tenn. border or deep into SC would be options.
Please keep us posted as long as you can. I guarantee you everyone on this board is thinking of you, fingers crossed Those of us who pray are praying as well.
P.S. It would not hurt to lay in a special supply of Guinness. If you leave, when you return you can celebrate your return with a bottle of Guinness - warm, just they way the Irish like it.
You will be in our thoughts for the next many days and weeks.
Unfortunately, it looks like Florence is projected to make landfall very close to Wilmington. You may get the eye of the hurricane or the "NE wall" of Florence. That will be the "dirty side" of the hurricane and will have the most destructive power. While tornadoes can form anywhere, the dirty side is historically high on the list.
As the veteran of several hurricanes I offer some thoughts which I am confident you already know:
1. I urge you to consider evacuation. I know you are a Marine and that grates the wrong way. Understood. Retreat is NOT defeat. Live to fight another day. If Florence does as projected it may well make landfall as a Cat. 5 hurricane with sustained winds in excess of 150 mph. Very few structures will survive that level of sustained attack for hours. As you noted, Florence is projected to stall at or near the coast. Very bad.
2. If you stay, make sure you lay in a supply of:
Water - enough for at least 2 weeks for each person; you will drink much more water than you normally do.
CASH - possibly (probably) no electricity for weeks; no banks; no ATMS, CASH IS KING Get small bills and much more than you think you will need
Vehicle gas tank full - gas pumps will not be working for days or weeks.
Batteries, radio, flashlights
Keep all cell phones on battery charger until electricity goes out.
If anyone in family takes meds, make sure you get an extra refill NOW because pharmacies will not be open, will not have electricity and will not have medical records for prescription refills.
Collect all important legal documents, insurance documents, etc. and make sure they are in a safe, dry place, preferably in your "go bag". Each person should have an individual "go bag".
Turn OFF at circuit breakers all non-essential electrical systems
Wash all clothes, etc. just before storm so that you start with a clean slate. Possibly no electricity for weeks; no washer/dryer.
Provide contact information, etc. to someone you know who is not in the path of Florence.
Some of the above may not apply if you have a sufficiently large generator with a sufficient supply of generator fuel.
Just some thoughts from a hurricane survivor, including Hurricane Andrew (24 August 1992; Cat. 5, sustained 160+mph winds). My house blew away. Andrew created this beautiful 10' square sky window in the bedroom - no roof but you could see the stars every night while sitting on the salt water soaked bed. What fun
I will end with this thought. If I had known just before 24 August 1992 what I know now, I would have done what I could to protect my home and property and then loaded up the truck with everything I could and "bugged out". I would have driven as far north as possible to get out of the path of Andrew. I have been in some scary s**t in my life; Andrew was at or near the top. Once it hits there is nothing you can do. You just sit for several hours hoping it will end soon. Three (3) people died (including 2 children) in my neighborhood when second floor collapsed onto the first floor. Many others died when their homes blew away.
In your situation, I would think driving west towards the Tenn. border or deep into SC would be options.
Please keep us posted as long as you can. I guarantee you everyone on this board is thinking of you, fingers crossed Those of us who pray are praying as well.
P.S. It would not hurt to lay in a special supply of Guinness. If you leave, when you return you can celebrate your return with a bottle of Guinness - warm, just they way the Irish like it.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Fair winds,
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
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Re: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Florence
Roberto. Copy all. It’s not about retreating. The roads will be jammed. There will be little fuel. No hotels. There should be shelters though. There is a serious risk of flash flooding at every bridge and all across the coast. Ordering mass evacuations for those not right on the coast or on in the proven flood zones can make it worse for those people that need to get out.
We have a rooom at MCAS Cherry Point. I want to have access to the boat to slack lines as the surge takes place and then take in when the water drops. It will depend on what we get here. A number of folks at the marina will be doing the same.
I won’t risk my life to save the boat but I won’t simply abandon her either. We will do what we can. It’s hard to say what we will get here, but I’m certainly concerned.
We have a rooom at MCAS Cherry Point. I want to have access to the boat to slack lines as the surge takes place and then take in when the water drops. It will depend on what we get here. A number of folks at the marina will be doing the same.
I won’t risk my life to save the boat but I won’t simply abandon her either. We will do what we can. It’s hard to say what we will get here, but I’m certainly concerned.
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Re: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Florence
Godspeed John Stone
Fair winds,
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Re: Hurricane Florence
Good luck man. As someone who has evacuated his whole extended family from the OBX, I feel for you and your boats. Hoping for the best for you all over the next few days.
Paul
CDSOA Member
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Re: Hurricane Florence
I think I have figured out where Hurricane Florence is trying to go She's just a little off course.
There is a town in South Carolina about 70 miles inland from Myrtle Beach SC that is called "Florence, South Carolina". Don't laugh but I think Hurricane Florence is trying to go home Kind of like "ET phone home" from the movie E.T. The Extra-terrestriall. Florence is just a little off track.
I have learned over the years that in the face of overwhelming danger a little humor is a good thing to ease tension. Repeating some funny albeit "dirty" jokes is also helpful. I shall refrain from the "dirty jokes".
There is a town in South Carolina about 70 miles inland from Myrtle Beach SC that is called "Florence, South Carolina". Don't laugh but I think Hurricane Florence is trying to go home Kind of like "ET phone home" from the movie E.T. The Extra-terrestriall. Florence is just a little off track.
I have learned over the years that in the face of overwhelming danger a little humor is a good thing to ease tension. Repeating some funny albeit "dirty" jokes is also helpful. I shall refrain from the "dirty jokes".
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Fair winds,
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
Roberto
a/k/a Sea Hunt "The Tadpole Sailor"
CDSOA #1097
________________________________
"I wish to have no Connection with any Ship that does not Sail fast for I intend to go in harm's way." Captain John Paul Jones, 16 November 1778, as quoted in Naval History and Heritage Command, http://www.history.navy.mil
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Re: Hurricane Florence
My boat is in Galesville MD, just south of Annapolis. If the current track holds we are not in danger of getting the full force of the storm but I'm concerned about the surge. I'm considering having my boat hauled. I think that Boat US will reimburse 50% of the cost.
Any thoughts?
I'm planning on going over tomorrow to double all lines and probably remove sails, just for peace of mind. But still considering getting her out of the water. My main concern is that if we get an appreciable surge the water will be so high I won't be able to get down the dock to adjust lines. Unfortunately, I'm not in a wide slip like John.
I was there yesterday and due to the inordinate amount of rain we've had, at high tide, the water was above the dock by a couple of inches. If we get a 4-6' surge I doubt I'd be able get there.
Any thoughts?
I'm planning on going over tomorrow to double all lines and probably remove sails, just for peace of mind. But still considering getting her out of the water. My main concern is that if we get an appreciable surge the water will be so high I won't be able to get down the dock to adjust lines. Unfortunately, I'm not in a wide slip like John.
I was there yesterday and due to the inordinate amount of rain we've had, at high tide, the water was above the dock by a couple of inches. If we get a 4-6' surge I doubt I'd be able get there.
Cliff
“Man cannot discover new oceans unless he has the courage to lose sight of the shore.”
― André Gide
“Man cannot discover new oceans unless he has the courage to lose sight of the shore.”
― André Gide