Hurricane Irma

[Sea Hunt Video]

In my continuing successful efforts to drive myself crazy during hurricane season I have been researching additional weather forecasting sites, programs, etc. This morning, after learning that "Irma" has formed as a TS (50+ mph winds) in the Eastern Atlantic, I again spoke with my good friend "Mr. Google". He told me about this website:

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

It is called "Mike's Weather Page". It appears to be a compilation of many different sources of weather information, data, programs, etc. I think it is sort of like the Bloomberg Reports on business information. All the data is collected in one website:
http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

In addition to much other information, in the upper left corner there are identifiers for GFS and EURO (ECMWF) models for hurricane path and strength projections. These are both reliable models and integrated into the NOAA/NHC path and strength forecasts. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.sh ... e#contents

If you click on either GFS or EURO (ECMWF) it will give you a screen with all the storms in the Atlantic region. Right below the words "Hurricane" and "Ensemble" there is a "start" arrow. Click on it and the screen (either GFS or EURO) will then project storm paths/strengths for the next 7-10 days depending on the model. The + and - keys are to increase or decrease speed of the projection.

Both models project "Irma" becoming a major hurricane as it approaches the Bahamas with 922-937 central millibar pressure. Low number bad; high number good. When Hurricane Andrew made landfall on Monday morning, 24 August 1992, Andrew's central millibar pressure was 922 at Homestead AFB and was a Cat. 5+ storm (165+ mph).

It appears from my amateur level of expertise that whether Irma is pushed away from East Coast of US or not will depend on the speed, direction and strength of a low pressure system forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico Wed, Thu, Fri of next week (06-08 Sep 2017).

Here is the NOAA/NHC five (5) day projection:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... d_wind.png

I already have my "go bag" ready. I think I will begin packing my "long term" bag today. Just in case.

[Sea Hunt Video]

Update:

When I went back to the website it appears that the "start" arrow key and +/- "speed" keys now show up BELOW the graphic/chart near the words "Precip/Moisture" and "Lower Dynamics". Not sure why it changed. Sorry.

[Capt Hook]

Roberto,

Have you seen that there's a "wave" or potential low pressure area developing in the Bay of Campeche right about where Harvey redeveloped after crossing over the Yucatan?

[Sea Hunt Video]

Captain Hook:

The experts say this is the most difficult time of hurricane season to predict course, speed and strength. There are so many small systems out there that form one day and are gone the next. Some have an effect on more developed systems; others have no effect at all.

As you observed what became Hurricane Harvey was forecast to basically dissipate in the Gulf of Campeche. Yet, it hung around, got strong, and moved north to become one of the most devastating hurricanes in US history. They have not yet done so but NHC/NOAA will retire the name "Harvey". From what I have seen Hurricane Harvey (with a combination of Cat. 4 winds and 50+ inches of water was/is more horrific than Andrew, Katrina, Wilma and Sandy. These four (4) were all very, very bad but the scale of Harvey (and the duration 7-8 days of wind and rain) is unprecedented.

As for Irma there are now 1-2 models suggesting a path over or near Bermuda. Bad for Bermuda; good for Florida. While I cross my fingers and offer a silent "yes, please", a part of me feels bad that I am rooting for a more northerly route. That is what I absolutely hate about hurricanes. With rare exceptions, in order for one part of our country to be sparred devastation another part or another country must necessarily suffer unspeakable devastation and post hurricane hardship.

I HATE HURRICANE SEASON

[Sea Hunt Video]

I think this is what you referenced Captain Hook. Projected to move north slowly. The slower the worse it is; time to develop strength and size. NHC/NOAA projects path towards Tx/La. If this happens, wow

[Capt Hook]

Roberto,

We can hope Irma becomes one of those "fish" hurricanes that avoids the coasts and stays at sea (missing Bermuda).

[Sea Hunt Video]

This is the most recent updated track for Hurricane Irma based on EURO model which is historically very reliable during September systems.

Click on the "start" button in the low left of the screen. It will then give the projected path/track of Irma. According to the EURO model Irma will pass over the Bahamas, Cuba and South Florida (Florida Straits). Devastating if it happens.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =mslpaNorm

[Sea Hunt Video]

I forgot to mention that once through the Florida Straits, if the EURO projection is accurate, Irma will track NW to Texas/Louisiana

[Sea Hunt Video]

For those Cape Dory sailors who live in NJ, Pa., NY, Conn. Mass. and beyond you may be interested to know that the GFS model (admittedly not as reliable as the EURO model this time of the season) has Irma tracking just west of Bermuda and then moving up the East coast towards NJ, Conn. Mass., etc.

The central pressure is projected to be 937-947 along the East Coast. That is bad. Admittedly, this is a long range projection and not 100% but it is something to be concerned about around Mon/Tue, 11-12 Sep.

[Capt Hook]

Irma is now up to Cat 3 - major hurricane status.

[John Stone]

This one has the potential to be a bad one. Too soon to say where it will go. The "experts" don't tknow either. Let hope it doesn't strike the US but especially not NC. Just saying ....

[Sea Hunt Video]

John:

For reasons I do not fully understand, ever since Hurricane Andrew (24 August 1992) I have become addicted to reading and researching as much as I can about hurricanes during each "H" season. I think there is a certain masochistic pain involved in this.

This season local hurricane forecasters are relying primarily on two (2) models - GFS (US) and EURO (European). There are 8-10 others with varying degrees of reliability.

As of 2300 hours tonight, GFS projects Irma curving NNW before reaching the Leeward/Windward Islands and missing most land (except possibly Bermuda). Unfortunately, the GFS model is somewhat unreliable in late August/early September. Not sure why.

The EURO model, a more reliable program, shows Irma being pushed more westward by a blocking high and thus passing over Leeward/Windward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispanola, USVIs, BVIs, the Bahamas, Cuba and, surprise, surprise, South Florida. And, as if Texas/Louisiana have not had enough pain and suffering already, the EURO model projects Irma making a second landfall somewhere along the Texas coast before curving N and then NE over La.

Unbelievable.

I would comment specifically on NC but I do not want to jinx you guys.

Frankly, from what I have learned over the past 25 years, anything more than a 3 day projection is just a crap shoot. NHC/NOAA has become very, very good at projecting storm path. But they are not perfect. A few degrees one way or the other can make all the difference. Just ask those of us in Miami when Andrew made a 1 degree (1 degree ) turn to the WSW.

NHC/NOAA is, unfortunately, not that good with projecting storm strength. From what I have read, there are apparently way to many variables to allow for more certain wind strength.

Fingers crossed, gas in the truck and a case of Guinness in the frig.

[jen1722terry]

Hi Roberto and all the other members.

We've been tracking Irma also, as Jenn's folks have a condo in Boca. They got major damage a few years back and hope to avoid more major repairs.

My brother lives in Houston. His house was not flooded but some of his grand kids had a rough time.

Such is the H season. We're thinking about all of you down there. Best of luck

Jenn and Terry

[Jim Walsh]

This is the most recent updated track for Hurricane Irma based on EURO model which is historically very reliable during September systems.

Click on the "start" button in the low left of the screen. It will then give the projected path/track of Irma. According to the EURO model Irma will pass over the Bahamas, Cuba and South Florida (Florida Straits). Devastating if it happens.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =mslpaNorm

The projected track has changed dramatically from your 8/31 posting.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =mslpaNorm

[Sea Hunt Video]

Jenn and Terry:

On behalf of all of us along the East Coast thank you for your kind words and thoughts.

Jim, as I believe I posted somewhere (they all start to melt together ) the long range (out past 4-5 days) projection of a hurricane path is "flexible" or in technical meteorological terminology - a "SWAG". When I posted on 31 August it was the then current EURO path projection out 7-8 days. I believe yesterday (possibly Friday) the EURO model corrected its projection. Fortunately for Houston, the EURO model is once again in agreement with the GFS model and no longer projects Irma crossing the Florida Straits/Florida, through the Gulf of Mexico and hit along the Texas coast. Thankfully, the Texas coast has endured enough.

Both the GFS model and EURO model now project Irma passing up through the USVI/BVI, PR, Hispanola and the Bahamas and then making a slight turn to the NNW. Currently projected barometric pressure as it passes over the Bahamas is 885-924. Andrew was, I believe, 922 at landfall. Low is bad; high is good.

Both GFS and EURO currently project Irma moving up along the East Coast (Fl, Ga., SC, NC). How far "off the East Coast" is the current big question mark. The GFS model suggests it then moves inland over SC/NC. The EURO model thinks Irma will continue up the East Coast (Va. Del, NJ) before heading out into the North Atlantic. As Jim's post highlights, these are long range projections. It may or may not happen.

The bottom line is, unfortunately, Hurricane Irma remains a serious threat all along the East Coast of the US. As I have said in other posts NHC/NOAA has become good at projecting storm path and speed (out 3-4 days).  They are still not that accurate at projecting storm strength.  Too many variables.  Most of the models now project Hurricane Irma passing NNW close along the Florida coast (somewhat similar to Hurricane Matthew - Oct 2016).  As some may remember from Hurricane Andrew (24 August 1992) just a small one (1) degree turn by Irma to the NW over the next week and Irma can easily decide to pass right over Miami-Dade County as a Cat. 4 or higher storm. A high level of caution is warranted.

I have got to be a masochistic idiot to want to learn this much about hurricanes. If I lived in Montana my only concerns would be mosquitos larger than birds and exactly when is trout season.

DISCLAIMER: ALL OF THE ABOVE PROJECTIONS OF COURSE AND SPEED MAY CHANGE WITHIN THE HOUR