Earl

[Bill Chapple]

I couldn't resist posting this link that my son sent me; the aftermath of Earl:
http://www.theday.com/article/20100905/ ... 59854/1044 .
I think they were crazy to arrange a race under these conditions. The wind is supposed to drop this afternoon so maybe I can put the sails back on my boat

[Warren Kaplan]

I saw that article. Sailing in strong gusty winds can be exhilarating but those winds are unforgiving of mental distraction and error by captain and crew, and gear malfunction and failure.

This was a club race and although they altered the course from sailing around Fisher's Island to one confined to Fisher's Island Sound (more protected) it begs the question that if they had to alter the course, was it prudent to run the race at all?

I'm not a "second guesser" by nature, but I know that yesterday I didn't even consider going sailing when I saw those winds.

[Sea Hunt]

While at the SSCA GAM this Aug . my #1 question to everyone was, "What do you do when a hurricane is forecasted". The majority of them answered was to "run & hide", but the one that they all mentioned was that they look at the forecasted track and head in that direction. The reason is that the 5-3 day forecasted is 99% wrong. I was waiting until Thursday to make my discission on what to do, if Earl's track was going to be closer then I would have "ducked & covered".
Glad that everyone made it trough with no problems.

Brian:

I never really paid a lot of attention to hurricanes until 24 August 1992. Over the past 18 years I have spent a lot of time from June to November thinking about (and worrying about) hurricanes.

NOAA/NHC has significantly improved its projections over the years, thanks to both additional satellite availability and improved "modeling". Because NHC is located in South Florida and we are sort of a "hurricane magnet", local TV stations are always interviewing NHC directors, etc. in June and July - prep time for hurricane awareness.

Everyone seems to agree that the two prediction factors for hurricanes - projected direction and projected strength have significantly improved over the years. NOAA/NHC has become very good at forecasting projected direction. If you are within the 5 day "cone" as shown on the NHC website charts, you can be confident you are going to get significant wind activity.

I remember years ago, NHC and local TV stations used to post charts with a "pencil thin" line projecting a storm's anticipated path. Folks used to look at the pencil line and think that if their house (or boat) was not right on the line that they were "safe" and did not have to worry. I was one of those. An NHC director eliminated the pencil line several years ago. The cone is much more realistic and accurate.

While NOAA/NHC has improved it's forecasting of projected storm strength, it is still not as good as it should be or needs to be. If you study the projected paths and projected strengths of storms we have had over the past 10 years, NOAA/NHC has been almost spot on with path projection and not so good with strength.

Long story short - whoever said NOAA/NHC is "99% wrong" on projections has not studied the history of tropical storms and hurricanes. If you are in the 5 day cone you are going to get very high winds - it may be less then projected or more than projected, but you are going to get high winds.

If you go to their website, on the left of the screen there is a lot of information (drop down screens ) about hurricane forecasting history, etc. Very educational stuff.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Fortunately for folks from NC to Maine, Earl tracked a little east of its projected path but still within the NHC "hurricane cone" and its strength decreased a little faster than projected. Very lucky. In August 1992 Hurricane Andrew was projected to hit the Dade County/Broward County line as a Category I or possibly Cat. II hurricane on a 270 degree due west course. On Sunday night, 23 August at about 1800 hours, Andrew made a small 2 degree turn to the south (as if to ask - "exactly where is Sea Hunt's house" ) and ramped up its strength to a Category V (more than 155 mph) when it made landfall near Homestead AFB on Monday, 24 August 1992 at 0455 hours. Most of southern Dade County and all of Homestead, Florida was completely destroyed.

Sorry for the long winded post. That's what 3 cups of Italian espresso - Medaglia D'Oro with a lemon twist, and bad memories will do.

[Joe Myerson]

While we in "the States" can breathe a collective sigh of relief over the "non-event" that was Hurricane/Tropical Storm Earl, things apparently turned nasty when the storm reached our neighbors in Nova Scotia.

Lest we forget, the Maritimes often get hit by storms that only brush our East Coast.

Here's the BBC report on what happened:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11189584

Let's hope the damage wasn't too severe there either.

--Joe